How to win your NFL survivor pool
Looking for a new reason to pray for the most improbable outcome in football history? NFL survivor pools might be for you. And theScore is here to help.
It's hard enough wishing for Albert Wilson to go for 150 receiving yards and two touchdowns on Monday Night Football to win your fantasy week, or needing the Bears to march 88 yards in 1:04 to backdoor that +10.5 ticket. Imagine all your hard work preparing for a deep survivor pool run being for naught after one week.
While we can't make every pick for you, keep these tips handy on your quest for bragging rights and, hopefully, money.
Ride Andy Reid's post-bye week success
I hate to say it, but I'm a big situational guy, and Andy Reid presents one of the coolest situational stats to consider in survivor pools.
In his head coaching career, Reid's teams are 16-3 straight up following a bye. If you buy into the importance of a team's preparation during a week of downtime, keep the Chiefs in your back pocket.
But beware: last season, they lost 12-9 to the three-win Giants as 10-point road favorites after their bye. This season, Kansas City is on the road at Oakland in Week 13. (When Jon Gruden runs 39 fullback dives for 282 yards to win by 50, I'll gladly accept your criticism.)
Avoid teams playing back-to-back road games in Weeks 1 and 2
Hey, more situational stuff!
Gambler @WhaleCapper dished out a really interesting nugget on a podcast last week, acknowledging how teams starting a season with back-to-back road games have been dismal against the spread over the last three seasons. This could be handy intel for survivor pools, seeing as teams aren't just losing against spreads, they're losing period.
Since 2011, teams opening the season with consecutive road games are 4-20 straight up in those games, with an average of 10.4 points per loss. (Tired legs!) Of the four wins, two were three-point overtime victories, and the Patriots were responsible for another - a 23-point win over the Saints.
Three teams - the Chiefs, Texans, and Seahawks - play their first two games on the road. Stay far, far away.
Don't rush to submit your pick
For a couple of reasons outside the obvious ones, such as injury reports:
- The earlier you make your pick, the more anxiety you'll have. Submitting the Packers to beat the Bears on Tuesday of the week prior will give you five days to overthink. Thoughts of Mike McCarthy taking the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands will induce cold sweats.
- It'll help you get the lay of the land. If you have a team you're keen on that you see multiple people are picking against in that week, you'll not only have an opportunity to trim some fat off the league, but you'll also have the luxury of being obnoxious in your league's Slack channel once your team is up 27-0 at the half.
Avoid these 3 teams
I hope you get deep enough into your survivor pool that this one comes into play.
The board looks like gold in the first few weeks, with so many options at your disposal. But come December, it'll resemble a bowl of Halloween candy that's been sitting on a front porch for hours, with nothing but Whoppers and York Peppermint Patties at the bottom.
Even on a deep run, you won't use roughly half the league. Here are a few teams I'd avoid like the plague:
Miami Dolphins - The Fins are favored in five games in 2018, but all by two points or fewer.
Buffalo Bills - Do not hitch your wagon to Josh Allen ... or A.J. McCarron ... or Nathan Peterman. Just don't.
Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals are favored in only two games (!) this season and both are by roughly a point.
Bookmark under-the-radar teams for later
If you're taking the basic approach of unloading on top teams early and finding value later in the season assuming you're still in the thick of things, here are some middle-tier teams currently favored in more than half their games from Week 10 and beyond via Vegas' look-ahead lines:
- Tennessee Titans (Weeks 11, 13, 14, 15, 16)
- Carolina Panthers (Weeks 12, 14, 15, 16)
- Dallas Cowboys (Weeks 12, 13, 15, 16)
- San Francisco 49ers (Weeks 10, 12, 14, 15, 16)
- Houston Texans (Weeks 11, 12, 13, 14)
Save the Patriots as your 'Stayin' Alive' play
New England has been the near-automatic pick in survivor pools for roughly two decades now, and for good reason.
There's obviously a risk in pocketing the Patriots, as their success rate means nothing in Week 10 if you're out by Week 5.
But if you're still in, pick the Pats in December. In the Brady-Belichick era, New England is 63-11 straight up in the month, going undefeated on eight occasions since Brady took over in 2001.
Remember the obvious choice is often the best one
There will be times when you'll need to roll up your sleeves and get bold, whether it be picking from a limited number of teams later in the season or avoiding a team that everyone else is on that week.
There will also be times when the right pick is the easiest on the board.
It's unclear whether this trend will continue in 2018, but the last 47 NFL teams to be favored by 15 or more points haven't lost.
It's not exactly outside-the-box thinking, but remember the name of the game: survival.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from Rounders and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)