Fantasy: Davis, Fournette headline dynasty rookie rankings
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
1. Corey Davis, WR, Titans
Unlike last year with Ezekiel Elliott, there's no clear-cut top dynasty rookie right now. In fact, you could probably make a very strong argument for any of the top four players on this list. But the position Davis plays helps his case here, as wide receivers are generally safer and last longer than running backs. And as a rule, I like to build my dynasty squads around the wide receiver position, rather than volatile running backs. To me, Davis was the only receiver in this draft class that projected as a true No. 1 at the NFL level - which is very high praise. He also goes to a great situation in Tennessee, with one of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota. Davis might not jump off the board like Elliott did last year, but what’s not to like?
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars
Fournette was often a man among boys at the highest level of college football. His tape from two years ago - when he wasn’t playing hurt - is jaw dropping, and few backs have entered the league with his combination of power, size, and pure speed. Fournette is the definition of a 1980s franchise running back. While he isn’t a liability as a receiver, times have changed in the NFL and he isn’t the jack of all trades that other incoming rookie runners clearly are. Still, the Jaguars were smart to select Cam Robinson in the second round to beef up their offensive line, and obviously they're looking to take much of the burden off Blake Bortles’ shoulders. Fournette could score a ton of touchdowns from Day 1.
3. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
We are really only talking about on-field production here, but in a facsimile of the NFL, dynasty owners must be aware of off-field concerns - in this case, the risk of suspension. Still, Mixon will be the Bengals' top running back in 2017. He's the perfect blend of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, who is returning from injury. In fact, he might be better at all phases of the position than either of those two, especially Hill who was disappointing and plodding a year ago. Mixon is exactly what you're looking for in today’s NFL, and the comparisons to David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Matt Forte are not unwarranted. Such running backs are about as close to sure things from a fantasy perspective as you can get, as game scripts don't really affect them. The biggest on-field worry for Mixon is the Bengals’ highly suspect offensive line.
4. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
McCaffrey is a great prospect who can excel in so many areas. He's squeaky clean off the field and a great addition to any NFL team. The Panthers' offense was devoid of speed and quickness in 2016, so you can see why they'd covet this young man. But here are my questions: Is McCaffrey truly the heir apparent to Jonathan Stewart, who Carolina just re-signed? And will the Panthers alter their style of play on offense? Sure, they need to keep Cam Newton better protected, but their current system was extremely useful on their way to the Super Bowl just two years ago. In the end, I expect McCaffrey to be the Panthers’ true slot receiver, an excellent complement to Stewart, and a great returner. The latter doesn’t help much in fantasy, but 12-to-15 offensive touches a game seems about right for Carolina’s first-round pick.
5. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
There is a bit of a tier break between McCaffrey and Cook, while Cook basically stands alone at No. 5 in these rankings. The Vikings made nice strides to improve their offensive line, and Cook should benefit greatly long term from Pat Elflein’s draft fall into Minnesota’s lap. The Vikings did sign another back in Latavius Murray, and while he isn’t close to the runner or potential receiving weapon that Cook is, the ex-Raider does have touchdown vulture written all over him. Cook’s combine numbers were poor, and there were concerns about his off-field behavior, but the number one thing that could keep him from quickly rising to the top of Minnesota's depth chart is his shoddy pass protection.
6. Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
The drop-off from Cook to Williams is noticeable, but this is a safe pick if you're in the No. 6 slot of your dynasty rookie draft. Williams should be very appealing to Philip Rivers, while the Chargers upgrading their offensive line helps everyone on that side of the ball. Plus, Williams should be looked at frequently near the goal line. The problem here is that Los Angeles’ newest addition just doesn’t have a very clear path to playing time, and to me projects more as a No. 2 receiver - both in the NFL and fantasy - rather than a top gun.
7. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Kamara stands alone for me in a tier by himself, and he's an easy selection at seven overall in your draft. Many see the rookie as being blocked by Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, but the Saints regularly lead the league in receptions by running backs, and Kamara is the clear favorite to lead this group of freshman runners in catches this season. Even more appealing, the long-term fate of Ingram and Peterson in New Orleans is very unclear. Prediction: Kamara will have the most all-purpose yards out of the Saints' running backs in 2018. Making matters even more attractive is that New Orleans didn’t only upgrade its offensive line in free agency, but also used a first-round pick on Ryan Ramczyk. Might Ingram be on the trade block?
8. O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers
This isn’t a knock on Howard - or any of the other highly talented tight ends in this rookie class - as a player. But for dynasty purposes, just how high do you really want to select a tight end, especially if you have a high-quality option already? This is a position that historically struggles during rookie seasons, and the cost of acquiring someone like Howard might be far more palatable midway through their debut season via trade. As a prospect, though, Howard really does have it all, and should be a success in the league, while Jameis Winston should be thrilled to have him. But if you are sitting at the No. 8 slot, it might be wise to field offers for that selection. This is the beginning of no-man’s land in this year’s dynasty drafts.
9. Evan Engram, TE, Giants
Much of what was said about Howard is true for Engram. However, Engram clearly has more wide receiver traits than Howard. He's a field-stretcher and excellent-route runner who shouldn't line up as a tradition tight end very often at all. From an NFL perspective, this was a very interesting selection by the Giants, who almost exclusively play 11 (1 RB/1 TE) personnel. With a running back, Engram, Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and the newly signed Brandon Marshall as the skill players around him, Eli Manning has an embarrassment of riches to distribute the ball to. However, who on this offense will do any blocking?
10. John Ross, WR, Bengals
The book on Ross coming out of college was an easy one: He's insanely fast and an extremely dangerous deep threat who's more than a Ted Ginn-like one-trick pony. He was also considered fragile with medical concerns, which isn’t shocking due to his size. The fact that Cincinnati selected him as high as it did (No. 9 overall) certainly gives Ross the benefit of the doubt with his medicals. However, he's going to get banged around much more, and the NFL season is much longer and more grueling than anything he's dealt with before. Also, the nature of his game doesn’t lend itself to high touchdown numbers, especially with the wealth of weapons around him in Cincinnati. And very similar to the case with the Giants, who is going to block in this offense?
11. Zay Jones, WR, Bills
Most will have Jones ranked higher than this, and that makes perfect sense. He should immediately start opposite Sammy Watkins, and considering Watkins’ inability to stay on the field, Jones could be the top dog in this passing attack as soon as his rookie season. Plus, the Bills decided against exercising Watkins’ fifth-year option, so he could be playing elsewhere in 2018. That all sounds very appealing, and Buffalo did trade up to select Jones, but there's still a lot of uncertainty around this franchise and its quarterback situation. Call me a contrarian, but I'm not sold that Jones’ game will transition smoothly to the NFL, or that he's as good of an athlete as his testing numbers indicate. Plus, if Watkins is elsewhere in 2018, don’t expect the Bills to sit on their hands at the wide receiver position.
12. Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs
Hunt is a lot of fun to watch, and runs very hard with outstanding dedication. But he isn’t all that gifted when comparing him to each team’s leading rusher around the NFL. Still, unlike much of Kansas City’s draft class, Hunt should see the field early and contribute. He's set up well to develop a nice one-two punch with Spencer Ware, but doesn’t have an especially high ceiling.
13. Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins
The Redskins have a very good offensive line, and although it doesn’t always play out this way, they know they have to reel in Kirk Cousins and take the brunt of the offense off his shoulders. That should mean leaning on the running game more often, but the backs in Washington have been very underwhelming. The situation sets up perfectly for Perine, who could quickly find himself atop this depth chart. And while not a great receiver, Perine might already be ahead of Robert Kelley in this regard.
14. David Njoku, TE, Browns
If we had more answers about the Browns’ quarterback situation, Njoku would probably be right up there with Howard and Engram on this list. This guy is an amazing athlete and was extremely productive in his final year of college. He's great after the catch, and should both stretch the seam and find pay dirt with regularity. Gary Barnidge is no longer in Njoku’s way, but it would be more settling if we had a better idea of who will be distributing the ball in Cleveland.
15. Joe Williams, RB, 49ers
Do running backs in a Mike Shanahan/Gary Kubiak/Kyle Shanahan offense typically produce big numbers in fantasy? Do these coaches have to use first- or second-round picks to find massive fantasy contributors at the position? You know these answers, and it's very telling that the younger Shanahan and the 49ers traded up for Williams - who was insanely productive over his final seven college games - on draft day. Meanwhile, we are not hearing any good reports out of San Francisco on Carlos Hyde - could he get traded? Williams, with his potential receiving skills, fits the mold that Shanahan got so much production from in Atlanta. This is my sleeper. Get Williams on the cheap now while you still can.
16. James Conner, RB, Steelers
Conner is a great story off the field, but he's pretty impressive on it, too. That was true before Conner’s serious illness, and this young man got better and better as the season went along last year. Obviously, Conner is blocked for playing time right now by Bell, but Mike Tomlin has a nasty habit of riding his top back until the wheels inevitably fall off. If Bell misses any time whatsoever due to injury or another suspension, Conner becomes an immediate starter in your fantasy lineup as part of one of the NFL’s best offenses. Also, Bell is once again a free agent after this season.
17. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers
As with Jones, most have Smith-Schuster ranked much higher. However, I think this very young man was selected in the second round more because the Steelers had a very high grade for him, rather than massive doubts about Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates. Pittsburgh found itself without a reliable No. 2 receiver last year to complement Antonio Brown, and this pick should help ensure that doesn’t happen again. Smith-Schuster is also a very different type of receiver than what's currently on Pittsburgh’s roster. But playing time could be very far away.
18. Carlos Henderson, WR, Broncos
Denver’s starting quarterback is either going to be Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch. Either way, the Broncos will need to generate easy, simple throws for their quarterback. Henderson is both powerful and explosive, excels after the catch, and has a clear path to become Denver’s slot receiver. The Broncos still have little in the way of a tight end threat, and while Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are quality established options, they are no longer spring chickens.
19. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
It might take some time for your selection of Godwin to pay off. Tampa Bay just has so many weapons right now, and at best, he becomes the No. 3 wide receiver for Winston in his rookie season. And even if he does, that still might make Godwin the fifth- or sixth-most attractive receiving weapon in this passing game, which could feature a lot of 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE) with Howard in the fold. But Godwin is still a very appealing player in his own right, and excels in contested-catch situations. He has a lot of ability and could eventually become a No. 2 wide receiver in an NFL offense.
20. Gerald Everett, TE, Rams
Think Jordan Reed, who would be an extremely valuable piece for a young, talented quarterback trying to find his way like Jared Goff. Sean McVay, a bright, young offensive mind, came over from Washington this offseason and clearly sees an awful lot of Reed in Everett, who was highly productive in college. And in terms of other receiving weapons in Los Angeles potentially standing in Everett’s way, that situation is extremely favorable.
Others To Consider
- D’Onta Foreman, RB, Texans
- Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants
- Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
- Marlon Mack, RB, Colts
- Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams
- Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers
- ArDarius Stewart, WR, Jets
- Taywan Taylor, WR, Titans
- Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers
HEADLINES
- Williams tried avoiding getting drafted by Bears, wanted Vikings
- Key takeaways from the NFL's 2025 schedule release
- Colts delete Minecraft-themed video over Microsoft rights, Tyreek joke
- First look at NFL win totals, Week 1 spreads following schedule release
- Schedule quirks: 13 bizarre facts within the NFL's 2025 slate