Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: New York Mets
Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the New York Mets (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):
Hitters
C Travis d'Arnaud
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 49 | 90 | 15 | 55 | 0 |
Steamer | 47 | 99 | 16 | 55 | 1 |
Zeile | 53 | 105 | 17 | 57 | 1 |
Injuries are d'Arnaud's issue - he's played a combined 175 games over the last two seasons, producing 25 home runs and 82 RBI. When he's in the lineup, he should produce above-average power figures for a catcher with solid rate stats. He'll be an early-to-mid-round selection largely on the hopes that he can put together a full campaign.
1B Lucas Duda
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 70 | 116 | 28 | 86 | 2 |
Steamer | 64 | 111 | 23 | 70 | 2 |
Zeile | 68 | 111 | 24 | 70 | 2 |
Despite being a moderate injury risk (he's played between 100 and 153 games in each of the last five seasons), Duda provides excellent power numbers. His OBP has always been much better than his batting average, though, as he typically strikes out just under once per game. He's a solid mid-range selection in mixed leagues.
2B Neil Walker
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 68 | 131 | 19 | 71 | 3 |
Steamer | 66 | 129 | 18 | 62 | 3 |
Zeile | 68 | 132 | 18 | 64 | 3 |
Signed to replace playoff hero Daniel Murphy, Walker was a reliable power producer in his six full seasons in Pittsburgh. He projects for more home runs, despite not moving to a more favorable hitter's park, though his rate stats are merely adequate. He's a borderline top-10 2B, and a solid mid-range pick in mixed leagues.
3B David Wright
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 56 | 112 | 10 | 54 | 7 |
Steamer | 50 | 103 | 11 | 45 | 5 |
Zeile | 60 | 124 | 12 | 54 | 7 |
Chronic back issues are a worry for Wright, who played in only 38 games last season. A strong September (.299 batting average, .396 OBP) showed what he can do when healthy, however, and he'll be a boom-or-bust selection if chosen too early. His projections assume Wright will miss significant time - his stats would be much better were he to play a full season.
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 71 | 133 | 15 | 65 | 7 |
Steamer | 48 | 109 | 13 | 53 | 6 |
Zeile | 55 | 115 | 13 | 55 | 7 |
Cabrera has always provided good power for his position, at the expense of middling-to-poor rate stats. The Mets will be his fourth team in three seasons, and he represents a late-round source of home runs and RBI.
LF Michael Conforto
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 85 | 141 | 26 | 87 | 1 |
Steamer | 57 | 124 | 18 | 57 | 3 |
Zeile | 61 | 127 | 19 | 65 | 2 |
Projections vary somewhat on the 23-year-old's impact, but Conforto appears set to see a much bigger role than in 2015, when the rookie saw just 14 at-bats against lefthanders. He has the ability to hit for power, and showed a solid batting eye both in the minors and in New York. His upside makes him a solid mid-round pick, though there's some risk as he's an unproven commodity in the majors.
CF Yoenis Cespedes
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 89 | 158 | 30 | 98 | 7 |
Steamer | 69 | 142 | 26 | 83 | 6 |
Zeile | 79 | 155 | 28 | 89 | 7 |
Cespedes' OBP (.328) and batting average (.291) represented his best marks in those categories since his 2012 rookie season with Oakland; his 35 home runs and 105 RBIs were far and away career bests. Cespedes has always provided solid power numbers at the cost of a poor OBP, and his heroics to help the Mets to the playoffs may drive up his average draft position.
RF Curtis Granderson
SOURCE | R | H | HR | RBI | SB |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 71 | 107 | 20 | 57 | 8 |
Steamer | 81 | 127 | 23 | 62 | 10 |
Zeile | 84 | 131 | 23 | 69 | 10 |
Granderson's batting average and OBP were his highest since 2011; while he has provided good-to-great power numbers throughout his career, they didn't always go hand-in-hand with his rate stats. Another season of at least 20 home runs is projected, as is some regression to the norm in his rate stats.
Starters
RHP Jacob deGrom
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 178.3 | 186 | 46 | 2.83 |
Steamer | 32 | 203 | 209 | 51 | 3.17 |
Zeile | 32 | 199 | 205 | 48 | 3.05 |
DeGrom's ERA is projected to rise somewhat from the sub-2.69 marks he posted in each of his first two seasons, but he should still strike out better than a batter per inning and provide excellent rate stats. Better win luck can also be hoped for after he went 14-8 in 2015. He'll be among the first 20 starters chosen, though he may go behind teammate Matt Harvey.
RHP Noah Syndergaard
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 29 | 172 | 194 | 43 | 3.09 |
Steamer | 29 | 176 | 193 | 46 | 3.13 |
Zeile | 29 | 182 | 199 | 43 | 3.12 |
Syndergaard's WHIP should rise slightly from last season's microscopic 1.05, but his ERA (3.24 in 2015) is expected to decrease. He should strike out better than a batter per inning, and given a full workload, should improve on 2015's 9-7 record. He'll likely be drafted later than deGrom and Harvey, but could provide the best value given his comparable stats.
RHP Matt Harvey
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 26 | 170.3 | 161 | 41 | 2.91 |
Steamer | 32 | 203 | 206 | 44 | 3.08 |
Zeile | 32 | 194 | 195 | 40 | 2.90 |
While Harvey's ERA may rise slightly from the sub-2.73 marks he's posted in his three MLB seasons, his elite WHIP makes up for it. He proved his health in 2015 after missing all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery, and could end up as the best of New York's already strong rotation. He should easily improve on last year's 13 wins, and will be among the first few starters selected.
LHP Steven Matz
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 25 | 141.7 | 139 | 44 | 3.37 |
Steamer | 26 | 149 | 145 | 50 | 3.59 |
Zeile | 26 | 154 | 138 | 51 | 3.55 |
After a six-start cameo in 2015, Matz should open the season in the rotation, though he may be subject to pitch counts and/or innings limits to preserve him for the long term, somewhat hurting his fantasy value. Expect a slightly higher ERA than his rotation mates, but a strong strikeout rate and WHIP. As a mid-round selection, Matz has a lot of upside.
RHP Zack Wheeler
SOURCE | GS | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 23 | 130 | 123 | 52 | 3.74 |
Steamer | 11 | 65 | 64 | 24 | 3.70 |
Zeile | 11 | 83 | 81 | 34 | 3.58 |
Tommy John surgery sidelined Wheeler for all of 2015, and he's expected to remain out until around July; his ZiPS projection is overly generous in terms of games started. He'll be an interesting sleeper off the waiver wire or a late-round stash as yet another young Mets power arm. Bartolo Colon will likely serve as the fifth starter until Wheeler is healthy.
Closer
RHP Jeurys Familia
SOURCE | G | IP | K | BB | ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZiPS | 76 | 77 | 83 | 19 | 2.69 |
Steamer | 65 | 65 | 68 | 22 | 3.14 |
Zeile | 65 | 65 | 68 | 22 | 2.56 |
Transitioning from setup man to closer, Familia struck out better than a batter per inning in 2015 and posted a WHIP of 1.00. More of the same is largely expected, though his ERA projects to rise from last season's 1.85. He's arguably a top-10 closer for 2016.