Are Cinderellas dead? 4 high-major long shots to consider in March Madness

Last year's Final Four featured four No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008, leaving many college basketball fans wondering if the tournament that brands itself on upsets and chaos is entering an era of predictability. One year is too small a sample size, but the 2026 NCAA Tournament will provide greater evidence as to whether it's time to start digging Cinderella's grave.

Cinderellas are typically considered mid-majors that take down a Goliath en route to the second or third weekend of competition. Think Princeton in 2023, Saint Peter's in 2022, Loyola Chicago in 2018, Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, VCU in 2011, and George Mason in 2006.

But those stories have become increasingly rare. College basketball has transformed extensively over the last few years, but an unintended consequence of introducing NIL and the lawless transfer portal is the weakening of mid-major programs.

Would a player rather star at a mid-major or have a lesser role on a power conference team for significantly more money? The answer for most players is the latter, an effect that's expanded the talent gap between such programs. Many smaller schools have sacrificed continuity, an essential characteristic of an underdog tourney run, to promote their program as a springboard to a high-major team.

Consider this: Last year's tournament provided the fewest outright underdog winners (13) since the tournament expanded in 1985. The Sweet 16 hasn't featured multiple double-digit seeds in each of the last three years, the longest streak since tournament expansion, according to ESPN. And at one point this season, ranked teams were 85-0 against unranked teams, the longest win streak in AP Poll history.

The betting market reflects the massive gap. This is the first time in modern tournament history that all 16 top-four seeds are double-digit favorites in their first-round games.

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Like in 2025, this year's best teams - Duke, Michigan, and Arizona - are historically great compared to their peers, creating the potential for another chalky Final Four. And if we're wrong and the market is overreacting, well, there's a lot of money to be made on upsets.

Choosing underdogs is the most exciting part of March Madness (even though top seeds advancing leads to more intriguing late-round games), but if the trendy upset pick no longer commands the attention it once did, it's time to pivot. Instead, we'll identify high-major programs that are considered long shots to flourish in the Big Dance.

7-seed UCLA

UCLA, which has won six of its last eight games, including three over ranked opponents, is better than its record and seed indicate. While the team's depth is questionable, its starting five is talented enough to earn a trip to the Final Four. Assuming Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau are healthy - both of whom are dealing with injuries - UCLA matches up well against potential Round of 32 opponent UConn, which benefited from playing in a weak Big East. Dent is one of the best point guards in the country, and the Bruins are nearly impossible to beat when he's drilling threes.

5-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin has a tough path with potential matchups against Arkansas in the Round of 32 and Arizona in the Sweet 16, but the Badgers have the tools to make a run. Elite guard play wins in March, and Nick Boyd and John Blackwell form a dangerous backcourt duo. Meanwhile, Austin Rapp and Nolan Winter are prototypical stretch-bigs.

Wisconsin attempts the seventh-most threes per game. High 3-point variance can lead to an early loss, but it can also result in hot shooting stretches. The Badgers have won five of their last six games, including wins over Purdue and Illinois. They shot 40% from three during that stretch, with nearly 60% of their field goals coming from deep.

6-seed BYU

Maybe I'm just hoping for as many games featuring AJ Dybantsa as possible before he enters the NBA. The nation's leading scorer (25.3 points per game) is good enough to drag BYU to a few tournament wins, especially with Robert Wright co-starring as Richie Saunders remains out. The Cougars, who rank 10th in offensive efficiency, won three straight games before losing to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.

While BYU's porous defense will ultimately be its downfall, its offense should outpace either Texas or NC State in the opening round. The Cougars would then likely face Gonzaga, which has a steady defense but may lack offensive firepower, as forward Braden Huff is expected to miss the first weekend. That's a favorable path to the Sweet 16, where BYU could meet Purdue in a track meet between high-powered offenses.

9-seed TCU

TCU could lose in the opening round or defeat an injured Duke team in the Round of 32, given the uncertain statuses of Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. The underseeded Horned Frogs beat Florida and Wisconsin in November and have now won six of their last seven games. David Punch is a bruising forward who can take over games with his playmaking and scoring, plus TCU has enough sturdy guard play to bust some brackets.

12-seed McNeese State

You may be asking what McNeese is doing here when the whole point of this exercise is to avoid mid-majors. It's a fair question, but I couldn't help myself. The Cowboys were a popular underdog pick last March, but this year's group is capable of orchestrating upsets as well.

In an elimination tournament, winning the possession battle is crucial. McNeese does that as well as anyone. It plays with a relatively slow pace but uses its defensive pressure to generate offense. The Cowboys lead the country in turnover margin and force the second-most turnovers per game, resulting in plenty of fast-break points. That could be problematic for Vanderbilt, which is 22nd in turnovers committed. McNeese holds the formula for another Cinderella run.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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