Fantasy: 5 potential busts to fade in 2025 (Updated)
More from this series:
- Breakouts to target (Updated)
- Sleepers to steal (Updated)
- Players we love
Missing on a premium pick in your fantasy draft can tank your entire season. These are the players we recommend avoiding this season.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Williams is an excellent running back. Nobody could reasonably argue otherwise after he ran for 1,144 yards with 15 total touchdowns in 2023 before then turning things up a notch with 1,299 rushing yards and 16 scores in 2024. But the risk involved in this pick, as is the case for so many other fantasy-related questions, isn't about talent.
The Rams once again added to the backfield in this year's draft, landing Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round. Scoff at the draft capital if you will, but it hasn't been difficult to gather that Sean McVay was head over heels for the Auburn product. Might he see Hunter's big-play ability as something of a missing piece for this run game?
Factor in that the Rams also have 2024 second-rounder Blake Corum in the mix, and it seems entirely possible that this backfield looks a lot different than the one-man show that produced 350 touches for Williams last year. He'll remain the lead guy going forward, but Hunter and Corum cutting into his workload might make it tough to see the return value you're expecting from a running back with a 27th overall ADP, according to FantasyPros.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
I'm still a big fan of Hall's game. Given the opportunity for a feature workload behind this new-look offensive line, he'd be one of the most exciting breakout candidates in the league this year. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like he'll be in anything close to that sort of role.
The Jets appear dedicated to a committee approach to their run game. Hall will remain a big part of that, and presumably be the de facto lead back on the depth chart, but there will be plenty of competition for carries. Braelon Allen is the biggest threat to his fantasy upside, as the second-year back rotated in for both short-yardage and passing-game work in the preseason. Isaiah Davis also looms as a potential rotation ball-carrier, and Justin Fields will handle plenty of run-game volume on his own.
That's a lot of obstacles to consistent fantasy production for a player who's currently being drafted as the RB14. Your mid-late third-round pick could probably be better used elsewhere.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️
I'll admit: this one could end up looking pretty silly. Hill has been one of the league's most unstoppable players for the majority of his pro career. While his production dipped in 2024, he was also playing through a wrist injury that required surgery at season's end.
It's entirely possible that a healthy Hill immediately recaptures his previous level of play and actually outperforms his third-round ADP. It'll certainly be tempting to scoop him up so much later than was possible at any point over the last few years. I'm probably going to let someone else be the one to take that gamble, though.
Even with the wrist injury, the timing of the down year raises too many alarm bells to be overly confident about his prospects in his age-31 season. It was only a matter of time before he lost a step. As a player who has won with an unparalleled combination of speed and quickness, it was always hard to imagine Hill's game aging particularly gracefully. Last year's drop-off may only be the start of the cliff.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Wilson is a borderline WR1 on talent alone. With one look at the Jets' receiver depth chart, it would be pretty easy to make yourself believe in the fourth-year wideout putting together a monster season. There is literally zero competition for targets in that room.
So why might Wilson be a fantasy bust this year? For starters, the lack of receiver talent elsewhere on the roster could very well work against him. Taking Wilson away will be the top priority of every opponent's coverage scheme.
And while he certainly has the talent to overcome the extra attention, are we sure this passing game will put him in a position to succeed? The preseason hasn't exactly quieted concerns on that front. As much as I like Fields for fantasy purposes, I'm almost exclusively chasing the rushing upside there. There are still some big questions about the rest of his game. The Jets are going to run the ball as much as anyone this year. It might be a long shot for Wilson to return value as the WR17 at his current third-round ADP.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Kelce now being drafted as the No. 6 tight end, according to FantasyPros ADP, might feel like a fair acknowledgement of the downward trend in his production. And it's not like you're passing up elite talents to get him in the seventh round of your drafts. But the market correction has still been a little slow for my liking.
While the Chiefs legend has mastered the art of just leaving enough gas in the tank for some more postseason magic, the regular-season output that matters to fantasy managers is bottoming out in a hurry. Kelce remained a target machine in 2024, but he did staggeringly little with the opportunity. His 823 yards represents the lowest total from any tight end to receive 130-plus targets since at least 1992.
Kelce remained a high-volume player, in part, because of a lack of options elsewhere in the Chiefs receiving corps. But with a young receiving corps trending up, Kelce's opportunities could drop substantially this year. It's tough to wrap your mind around it, but he's probably still overpriced. Reaching to fill your tight end spot with a familiar name, rather than waiting another three-plus rounds to take an ascending tight end like Tucker Kraft, could prove costly.
More from this series:
- Breakouts to target (Updated)
- Sleepers to steal (Updated)
- Players we love
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