Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Browns-Texans

The Browns boast three top award candidates, including Kevin Stefanski (Coach of the Year) and Myles Garrett (Defensive Player of the Year). The third, Joe Flacco (Comeback Player of the Year), led Cleveland to a 4-1 stretch to clinch a playoff spot before Week 18.

While Cleveland was getting hot, the Texans lost two of three after Rookie of the Year candidate C.J. Stroud got hurt. Unfortunately, Stroud's concussion made the Browns and Texans' Week 16 regular-season matchup meaningless in trying to figure out what to expect Saturday afternoon.

Browns @ Texans (+2.5, 44.5)

After entering the campaign with the second-lowest regular-season win total, the market perceived Houston as a league-average team (50/100) going into the Jets game in Week 14. But even with Stroud returning for their final two games, the Texans only had an estimated market rating (EMR) in the low 40s. However, they proved the point spreads were too short.

The Browns' rating made more of a U-shape throughout the season with their various headaches at quarterback. But with a current spread of almost -3, it's back where it was in Week 1 in the high 50s.

With Cleveland at its high point in the market and the Texans rated around their mean, there's some surface-level value in Houston. However, each team comes into the game in a vastly different position.

The Texans played in a de facto playoff game last week, putting forth their best effort on the road in a win-and-in contest with the Colts. Can they do that again?

The Browns' Week 16 win gave them both a better record and an eventual week of rest. Cleveland sat its most important players in Week 18 while Houston fought for its playoff lives.

The Browns' defense was better at home than on the road this season, but it should still be the best unit on the field Saturday. However, the second-best unit might also be Cleveland's offense.

Here's how the Browns have progressed from a yards-per-play standpoint since Flacco took over:

The Texans' offense was tied with Baltimore for fifth in yards per play at 5.8 before Stroud's injury. However, guard Tytus Howard and breakout rookie Tank Dell aren't returning, and their receiving corps has been further compromised with Noah Brown's back injury and a nagging issue with Robert Woods' hip.

That's left Nico Collins as the primary target. He hauled in nine balls for 195 yards against the Colts, while other Texans receivers caught two passes for 11 yards. That won't work against the Browns, who have premier cornerback Denzel Ward. If Collins can't get open, the Texans' ground game (29th in yards per carry) shouldn't be expected to do much.

Cleveland's in a better position to bring its best effort, while the season's already considered a success in Houston.

Pick: Browns (-2.5)

Player props

Devin Singletary: Under 16.5 rushing attempts

Player prop betting should correlate with your game handicap. If we think the Browns will win, we have to look at what the Texans' player usage would be if Houston loses. Devin Singletary has received 14-plus carries five times this season - all wins. When he's had 13 or fewer rushing attempts as the primary tailback, the Texans were 3-4. So, they could still win the game without excessively handing the ball off.

Nico Collins: Under 71.5 receiving yards

Collins became a household star last Saturday. If the Browns weren't already familiar with his game, they know where he is now. With a steady diet of Ward in man-to-man, along with zone coverage rolling his way with help over the top, Collins will be hard-pressed to top a number inflated by his situation as the lone outside threat.

Anytime touchdowns

David Njoku (+175)

The last we saw the real Browns, Flacco's favorite target, David Njoku, did everything but score a touchdown while catching six passes for 134 yards against the Jets. That snapped a run of four touchdowns in his previous three games. Now, Cleveland faces a Texans team that's allowed the most receptions (6.29) to opposing tight ends.

Kareem Hunt (+230)

You don't often get the rushing touchdown leader from the favored team at longer than +200 odds, but Kareem Hunt quietly had nine scores this season. Flacco isn't likely to vulture any goal-line carries from a trusted vet.

Brevin Jordan (+625)

If the Texans' receivers have a hard time separating from Cleveland's defensive backs, and the Browns keep a close eye on Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan is a feasible red-zone option. That makes him a viable long-shot scoring candidate. Jordan's been on the field for half the snaps in the last two games, as Houston's had to use more two-tight end sets to compensate for a lack of receiver depth.

Mega-long-shot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same-game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting, but for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.