CFB Week 10 big games: 4 games with CFP implications

The College Football Playoff committee released its largely meaningless first round of rankings Tuesday night. The betting market is far sharper at identifying the most likely teams to get a semifinal spot since it considers each team's path when calculating odds.

The artificial cutoff for contention is probably No. 8, which means four teams in that mix have a reputable opponent this Saturday. Let's look at who we should be backing to handle the pressure that comes with November.

No. 23 Kansas State @ No. 7 Texas (-4.5, 51.5)

This game may be better left for the live-betting market since Kansas State's downfall this season has come from going behind early. Will Howard threw three interceptions in Stillwater while trying to come from behind against Oklahoma State. In a neutral game state, the Wildcats' offense can compete on the road. It's come out with a purpose the last two weeks, blowing out both TCU and Houston almost instantly.

This line suggests that Texas will be without Quinn Ewers. He makes the Longhorns' offense less explosive with Maalik Murphy and less likely to jump out to a multi-touchdown lead against a K-State defense that's much better than the one he faced against BYU in his first start last week. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, Texas will get a fight from the Wildcats, who, like last year's Big 12 championship team, are getting better as the season goes.

Pick: Kansas State (+4.5)

No. 12 Missouri @ No. 2 Georgia (-15.5, 54.5)

All of a sudden, Missouri is ranked. If it hadn't blown a 15-point lead at home against LSU, this would be a battle of undefeated teams on top of one for the inside track to an SEC East division championship.

Kansas State's 52nd-ranked defense by EPA/play is the best unit Brady Cook and Luther Burden have faced this season. Georgia's defense has slipped from previous seasons from a metrics standpoint, but it should be able to get more pressure on the quarterback than the Tigers are accustomed to dealing with. The Bulldogs' secondary won't let Burden single-handedly beat them.

Georgia's in no danger of losing this game, as its offense racked up almost 500 yards against a Florida defense with a better EPA/play and standard-down success rate than Missouri. However, with this big spread, the backdoor should be open late - it's just a matter of whether Cook can do enough while trailing with a one-dimensional offense to walk through it for the cover. But that's not enough for me to take the Tigers.

Pick: Pass

No. 5 Washington @ No. 20 USC (+3.5, 76.5)

If USC thought its second loss of the season would inspire improvement, California and freshman Fernando Mendoza put those ideas to bed last week, recording 527 yards. Now Michael Penix is coming to town.

Washington could use a little inspiration itself, having slept through a pair of too-close-for-comfort wins over Arizona State and Stanford. Getting back in the spotlight with a trip to Los Angeles and facing the defending Heisman Trophy winner should get its attention.

Before the season started, we'd have expected the Huskies to be underdogs here. Even a week or two ago, this game would probably be a pick'em. If there's any interest in USC, it's on the premise that Washington as a favorite is too much of an adjustment. However, the Trojans haven't covered their last six games, so until they beat the number, we'll assume there's more room for their rating to drop. Though the Huskies' recent snoozing might make bettors think they're not up for winning this game convincingly, they are.

Pick: Washington (-3.5)

No. 14 LSU @ No. 8 Alabama (-3, 60.5)

Speaking of adjustments, this game opened with Alabama as 6-point favorites, and we've seen the line fall to a field goal. I like the opening number better.

The Tigers are 1-2 against ranked opponents this season, giving up an average of 470 yards and over 46 points to Florida State, Missouri and Ole Miss. There's a limit to the Crimson Tide's offensive potential with Jalen Milroe, but Alabama might reach it against a woeful Tigers defense that allows big plays on 15% of opponents' snaps.

Defensively, the Crimson Tide's SDSR is only behind Michigan's, so the Tigers won't have as easy a time as they have against far tougher defenses. Nick Saban's getting a second chance to contain Jayden Daniels' running ability a year after holding him to 172 passing yards - only to have the LSU quarterback beat the Tide on the ground.

Pick: Alabama (-3)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.