ACC season betting preview: It's down to Clemson and Florida State

The ACC as we know it is still standing - for now. While there are rumors that some of the premier football institutions want out of the ACC and others are trying to bar the door to Stanford and California, it's anyone's guess what will happen in the next year.

In the meantime, the ACC has abolished the Atlantic and Coastal divisional format. This means there's a better chance that the top two teams will clash in Charlotte on the first Saturday of December. The beneficiaries are Clemson and Florida State - the class of the conference - which, in turn, hurts any long shot's chances to make the title game. That group of chasers includes a dark-horse squad with a candidate near the top of the Heisman Trophy oddsboard.

ACC championship odds

An ACC team hasn't featured in the College Football Playoff since 2021. While oddsmakers have declared the conference a two-horse race between Clemson and Florida State, either team would need to cruise over 9.5 wins for a chance to make the CFP. The Tigers are currently available as field-goal favorites when they host the Seminoles, so betting on Clemson in their late September game equates to doubling down on a Clemson future to win the ACC.

Florida State's return to prominence comes with heightened expectations. The Seminoles return 17 starters on both sides of the ball, setting them up to contend in the ACC. Clemson is not the unstoppable force it once was, as evident in its razor-thin edge as the favorite.

ACC team ratings

Using regular-season win totals and how the strength of the conference affects the schedule, Matt Russell, theScore's lead betting analyst, has estimated how the betting market rates each team on a national level. Using a rating system allows you to project point spreads and track any change in how the market has reacted to recent games.

Florida State's rating is in line with its role as a 2.5-point underdog in the neutral-site prime-time matchup with LSU that highlights Week 1. If the spread is pushed to +3, it might be time to back the 'Noles.

With Heisman candidate Drake Maye (+1600) and eight other returning starters from an offense that averaged 34.4 points per game, North Carolina should still cook. The defense improved by five points per game last year, and with eight returning starters, it could do so again and make Maye's life easier.

Virginia hasn't had a winning season since 2019 and is a projected favorite in just three games this season. Georgia Tech hasn't had a winning season since 2018. Even at plus money, it's hard to see Georgia Tech winning more than 4.5 games.

Best bets

theScore's betting writer Sam Oshtry looked at regular-season win totals earlier this summer. Here are his best bets:

Let's look at some additional wagers worth considering for the ACC this season.

Clemson to win ACC (+145)

It's time to buy the Clemson dip. After consistent appearances in the national championship game, Clemson hasn't been back to the College Football Playoff since 2019. It's no certainty, but it seems like the Tigers' quarterback play can't be worse with Cade Klubnik fully taking over. Oddsmakers seem to think he'll be just fine, giving him the fifth-best odds to win the Heisman at +1400.

Clemson's defense struggled last season, allowing 21 points per game with a new defensive coordinator. That's an almost seven-point jump from the prior season. I expect that to go back down with eight starters returning in Wes Goodwin's second year leading the defense. Even one regular-season loss should still get the Tigers to the ACC championship, where they won't be as long as +145, even against the Seminoles.

Nov. 11: Miami (+12) @ Florida State

Florida State is back in the national picture and Miami is looking to trend in the right direction in Year 2 under Mario Cristobal. If both teams have the kind of seasons they hope for, this should be a fun November showdown that's closer than the line suggests.

A combined 19 starters are back on both sides of the ball for Miami. That may seem problematic a year removed from the Hurricanes' worst record since 2007, but Miami was inexperienced last season. With a talented roster around him in Coral Gables, hopefully passer Tyler Van Dyke benefits from that familiarity as well.

The sour taste of Florida State's resounding 42-point win over Miami still lingers. While the Seminoles' talent is undeniable, this year will be much more competitive. When November rolls around, I expect this line to be in the single digits, so grabbing it now at 12 is smart.

Nov. 25: Clemson (-7) @ South Carolina

If the Tigers can survive North Carolina the week prior, they've got the Palmetto Bowl one week later, eyeing revenge on their cross-state rival after losing in the regular-season finale last year.

Market ratings suggest that this number is actually short. We have a projection of Clemson -10 if the game were played today, so locking in Clemson -7 might be worth it before the Gamecocks have to suffer through the SEC slate, dropping their rating. We'll bet that they won't catch Dabo and Co. by surprise again, especially if Clemson enters the game in CFP contention.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on social media @soshtry for more betting coverage.