Masters betting preview: Who can make a charge at a green jacket?
Sports' "tradition unlike any other" is loaded with storylines, which isn't new for the Masters. But never before have we had the added element of star players returning after joining a rogue tour, Tiger Woods (+5000) coming back with seemingly improved health, and Rory McIlroy's (+750) attempt at the career grand slam.
Tiger on the prowl?
The Masters was the lone 2022 major that Woods was able to complete all four rounds. Woods looked considerably more able when we last saw him compete at the Genesis Invitational in February. Relatively short 50-1 odds guard against a sportsbook getting crushed by what should be a popular bet. However, more realistically, backing Woods to make the cut (-190) or to graduate to a top-20 (+225) this year would be the way to bet on his success.
Top draws (odds to win/top 20)
Golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week:
Jon Rahm (+1000 / -220)
This might as well be the "Scheffler, Rahm, or Rory" section, as they've won more than half of the events they've entered since McIlroy took the Tour Championship over Scottie Scheffler last year. So which of the three will come out on top this week?
Obviously, we have no idea, but Rahm's price is the most attractive. That's a pretty good tiebreaker as it trickles down to derivative markets like top-20 and head-to-heads. Since his debut at the Masters, Rahm has finished in the top 10 in four of five starts, averaging in the 60s in final rounds.
Jason Day (+2500 / -120)
Day is going to be a hot pick as he best combines good form with past success at the Masters. Due to a swoon in play because of injuries, Day hasn't played in an April Masters since pre-pandemic, but in eight tournaments he's finished, his worst result was a T28. Day hasn't finished outside the top 20 of any event this year. Back in form, there's no reason he can't contend, especially relative to similarly priced stars.
Cameron Young (+3000 / +105)
When evaluating course familiarity for Young, don't go to his PGA.com results page. Instead, go to the listing for Webb Simpson. Why? Because Young just hired Simpson's longtime caddy, coach, and friend, Paul Tesori. In the first event of the Young-Tesori partnership, they made a run to the final at WGC-Match Play that featured a heads-up win over McIlroy.
In his debut last year, Young shot 77-77 at Augusta, missing the cut by a mile. However, adding Tesori means he now gets about 20 Masters' worth of knowledge on his bag - including back-to-back top-10s that Tesori helped Simpson to in his prime.
Young's prodigious power - top-five in driving distance and 12th in strokes gained: off-the-tee - makes him a good fit on a course like Augusta, where long is more important than accurate.
Min Woo Lee (+6000 / +175)
More than just surviving his debut at Augusta last year, Lee quietly finished T14. He had a surprisingly strong handle on the course's tough greens, gaining 1.66 strokes on the field on putting alone. Lee comes into this year's Masters with much more confidence after finishing T6 at The Players Championship. Last year, Lee had a series of missed cuts heading into Augusta, but he was third at TPC Sawgrass in strokes gained: putting, so his work on the greens is no fluke.
The LIV situation
While the PGA players - for the first time - have tuned up for the Masters with numerous designated events that they had to perform well in to get paid, the LIV golfers have been playing for decidedly different stakes in resort course environments.
The standard handicap for each golfer that left the PGA TOUR for guaranteed money and less competition on the LIV Tour is that they'll be less sharp when it comes to the majors. Of all the players that migrated, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith would be the only ones considered to be at the top of the game, and Brooks Koepka got his first LIV win last week. Johnson and Smith are known for having numerous interests outside of golf, relatively unconcerned about their legacy. They haven't contended in the first three LIV events of the season, suggesting they can be ignored, whereas Koepka (+600) might be a good bet for the top LIV player.
As far as a pure fade is concerned, both Bryson DeChambeau (+150) and Sergio Garcia (+160) are viable bets to suffer a blow-up round and miss the weekend - something they no longer have to worry about while competing at LIV events.
The favorite club in the bag
Going into this betting season, we picked two golfers to bet to win each week: Max Homa and Tom Kim. The thinking is that our second-tier duo on the oddsboard will win more than once and be profitable on the assumption they play 20-to-25 events. It took one week for that to pay dividends, as Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1, and he almost added a second win at Riviera.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
They sure are. Homa was dispatched from WGC-Match Play in the Round of 16, but he's 25-1 to win at Augusta, thanks to strong play this season. Homa doesn't have any top results in three starts at the Masters, but he's also never played this well or with this much self-confidence. Meanwhile, Kim came on the scene meaningfully in mid-May of last year, so this is his first appearance at Augusta.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.