Arnold Palmer Invitational betting: Best buys at Bay Hill
The PGA TOUR started its "Florida Swing" last week, but the big names took an extra week before things crank back up with another designated event - the $20-million Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
It's not just a flip in southern coasts - where the portion of the players who live in Florida now get something of a home-field advantage - but it also signals a change in the grass and type of course. Poa becomes bermuda, while cliffs and desert are replaced with vast expanses of water hazard. So while there were weekly regulars atop the leaderboards in California and Arizona, we'll turn to a handful of different options for this segment of the Tour schedule.
Three draws (odds to win/top 20)
Three golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week.
Rory McIlroy (+900 / -190)
Rory McIlroy's never been a big California guy. He's occasionally gone to Riviera, and he's made very few appearances at Torrey Pines or TPC Scottsdale. Some years, he's skipped the western start entirely. This year, he was obligated to play in Phoenix and L.A., so I'm not going to worry that McIlroy didn't contend in February.
McIlroy's here to win majors, so his season is tailored to truly start close to his Jupiter, Florida home. The idea is to peak for major season from April through July. It's McIlroy's time now with the shift to Bay Hill, as most of his PGA TOUR wins have come in Florida and the Carolinas.
It might seem like a steep price for a top 20, but having achieved that comfortably eight of nine times at Bay Hill, -190 might not be that bad. Having seen Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler win already - putting in their application for number one golfer in the world - look for McIlroy to remind everyone he's also a force to be reckoned with.
Sungjae Im (+3300 / +140)
In four trips to Bay Hill, Sungjae Im has finished third, third, T-21, and T-20. He's had three quiet top 20s out of four tournaments in California this season. Im plays a lot, and though he finished well back at the Honda Classic last week, he was top 20 in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and getting a Florida tournament under his belt is more comfortable for him than most. Another top 20 at a plus-price is a good bet.
Corey Conners (+6600 / +240)
Corey Conners started the season with two top 20s in Hawaii but only played the big money events out west. It's possible Conners prefers Florida, as he's one of the Tour's contingent living in Jupiter. After missing the cut in his first two tries at the API, he finished third in 2021 and 11th last year when he led the entire field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. If you're worried he's not in form, Conners had three missed cuts and a T38 out west before last year's strong showing, and missed the cut at the Genesis in 2021 before finishing third at Bay Hill.
The scary fade
When you least expect it, you mega-slice a tee shot into the trees. We pick a golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price.
Patrick Cantlay (+300 to miss cut)
If there are players less interested in playing the west coast, there have to be some players who reside out there that aren't pumped to be in Florida. Feel free to google Patrick Cantlay's results at Bay Hill... Sorry, they don't exist. He's never played in the event. Add in three straight missed cuts up the road at The Players Championship, and Cantlay might be the best player who struggles with a shift in conditions in the "Florida Swing," making any fade worth the risk.
The favorite club in the bag
Going into this betting season, we picked two golfers to bet to win each week - Max Homa and Tom Kim. The thinking is that our second-tier duo on the oddsboard will win more than once and be profitable on the assumption they play 20-to-25 events. It took one week for that to pay dividends, as Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1, and he almost added a second win at Riviera.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
Yes, both. The unfortunate part about Homa coming up short at the Genesis is that word is officially out, and his odds have been cut to +1800 at an elevated purse event. Elsewhere, we still believe in Kim, and he's up to 50-1, which means that when he wins a big event this year, it will be for a nice payout.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.