Wild Card Weekend betting: Where does value lie in the AFC?
Like the NFC, the AFC half of Wild Card Weekend has three rematches from the regular season. However, there's very little to take away from the previous matchups because of various quarterback injuries from either the past or upcoming games.
See also: Where does value lie in the NFC?
We'd expect the spreads and totals to be bet into place shortly after Sunday's openers but, with a pair of questionable QB situations, there's room for movement as news comes down about who starts do-or-die games.
Chargers @ Jaguars (+1, 47.5)
In Week 3, the Jaguars walked into SoFi Stadium and crushed the Chargers by four touchdowns. In what might be a hint of things to come, Justin Herbert played despite an injury to his ribs that drastically hindered him. Herbert's on-target throw percentage was roughly half of what it had been in Weeks 1, 2, and 4. The Chargers then refused to follow common strategy in Week 18 that would have suggested resting Herbert, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James. Four of these players have missed time this season, and two left Week 18 with a nagging injury.
Even the most ardent Brandon Staley defenders have jumped off that bandwagon, which might be why the Jaguars took money instantly Sunday when the Chargers opened 2.5-point favorites. How quickly we forget that there was real concern for much of Saturday night's game that Jacksonville would lose at home to the Titans who were starting a quarterback that joined just two weeks prior.
For all of Herbert's inaccuracy in the teams' earlier meeting, yards per play were even at 5.5 to 5.4. The Chargers continue to be willing to give up yards on the ground, while the Jaguars' defense has shown perhaps even more improvement than Trevor Lawrence through the latter half of the season.
With the Jaguars holding up well against opposing rushers, the Chargers' offense will rest on Herbert's arm. Meanwhile, we saw Lawrence fight bouts of inaccuracy in last Saturday's big prime-time game, so Travis Etienne should get more carries than usual because of the matchup. In both cases, we might see less scoring than we'd expect from a pair of quarterbacks who will get top-billing.
Pick: Under 48 (-120 or better)
Dolphins @ Bills (-13, 43.5)
The Dolphins and Bills have together partaken in two of the stranger games of 2022. The first, in Miami, the Dolphins narrowly won despite being outgained by 285 yards on 51 more Bills plays. The second was a shootout in freezing cold and eventually snowy conditions that Buffalo won by a field goal.
The obvious issue in handicapping this game is figuring out which Miami QB will start. The Bills were favored by seven in their Week 14 game, so with Tua Tagovailoa ruled out Wednesday, we never saw a line close to that, even after a brief line dip to Buffalo -9 when it was thought Tagovailoa might be available. Now, the starting job is between Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson, and we're nearing a two-touchdown spread.
With all these moving pieces and uncertainty, we'll pinpoint a total. The Dolphins averaged 7.1 yards per play in Buffalo with just 234 yards passing from Tagovailoa. The Bills' run defense isn't trustworthy right now - an issue that's plagued them in past seasons. Even if Raheem Mostert isn't available for Miami, Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed can replace most of his production, forcing Buffalo to push its scoring.
Buffalo was largely bailed out by a pair of kick-return scores last week, but the offense should be able to move the ball against the Dolphins given that they've done so in each of the previous meetings, with Josh Allen throwing over 100 times without an interception. They would be best served to spread out Miami.
The total mirrors the number for that cold night in Buffalo when the weather couldn't stop either team. There's obvious concern that the Dolphins won't score 20 points without Tagovailoa, so we'll pass over the full total and rely on just the Bills since they can get to 28 points regardless of who starts at QB for the other side.
Pick: Bills' team total over 27.5 points (-120)
Ravens @ Bengals (-7, 43.5)
Where is Lamar Jackson? This point spread moving up to - and potentially through - a converted touchdown, suggests we're increasingly unlikely to see him on the field Sunday night. If there was optimism for Jackson, we'd see a line closer to Bengals -4 if not shorter.
Tyler Huntley was rested last week on the chance he'd be starting this one. Covering for Jackson this year, Huntley has three touchdowns, three interceptions, and three fumbles, averaging a full yard less per pass attempt and half the yards per carry as Jackson.
It's out of respect for John Harbaugh and the Ravens' ability to get by when they're the less talented team that I don't want to ask anyone to beat Baltimore by two scores. However, there's room to maneuver in using the Bengals as the first leg of a two-team, six-point teaser, as it would be viable even if the line goes up to -8.5 with confirmation of Huntley getting the call.
Pick: Bengals -1 (Teaser leg No. 1)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.