Reasonable end-of-season reactions for every AL team
Let's be honest: Making wild prognostications based on small samples is just more fun. That's why we start every season with Opening Day overreactions.
Now, though, every team has played at least 162 games, a new champion has been crowned, and we can fully develop our conclusions for Major League Baseball in 2022.
Today, we're breaking down one thought for every American League club.
Baltimore Orioles: The rebuild is over! Now comes the hard part of building a sustained contender. Tearing it down is simple - and the O's certainly did that, losing at least 100 games in each of the three full seasons prior to this campaign. Drafting and developing is harder, but Baltimore passed the early tests there, with Adley Rutschman arriving and immediately producing while Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, among others, turned into key producers. Now the front office has to focus on spending to supplement the roster with other stars. It's time for Baltimore to complete the cycle.
Boston Red Sox: It's time to find out who Chaim Bloom is. Since he took the reins in Beantown following the 2019 campaign, he traded away Mookie Betts and predominantly tinkered with a club that's finished as high as second and as low as last. This winter is a pivotal one for the Red Sox and, therefore, a key one for defining Bloom's legacy. Does he continue building the roster his own way, even if it means parting with stars developed or acquired by previous regimes - such as Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez - who can leave in free agency? Or can he extend Rafael Devers and build around him to keep Boston in its window of contention for at least a few years?
Chicago White Sox: We told you. Let this be a cautionary tale to every would-be contender: Don't settle for "good enough" because that won't cut it. In 2021, the White Sox cemented themselves atop the AL Central but were very clearly a step behind the true contenders in other divisions. So general manager Rick Hahn and Co. spent their winter doing ... nothing. South Side fans were left to root for a .500 club that toiled in mediocrity all summer. Will the team learn its lesson this winter and actually add more than just another A.J. Pollock? If it doesn't, expect some job openings in the front office.
Cleveland Guardians: The Guardians have never missed the postseason. While that's not really indicative of much, it's a great way to start a new brand and a somewhat surprising development for a club most pundits had finishing third in the weakest division in baseball. Instead, Cleveland locked up Jose Ramirez on a team-friendly extension and made the playoffs as the league's leaders in making contact - one year before shift restrictions make that an even more important skill.
Detroit Tigers: At least some key prospects got a taste of the bigs? Now, whether playing for such an unbelievably anemic team actually helped the development of Spencer Torkelson (.604 OPS, minus-1.0 WAR) and Riley Greene (.682 OPS, 0.9 WAR) can't be determined for a while. What is clear, though, is that the roster isn't as close to contention as Al Avila had hoped when he signed Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez to combined deals worth $217 million. Avila's successor, Scott Harris, has his work cut out for him in figuring out what works for the future and what doesn't.
Houston Astros: Moratorium on cheating scandal jokes because we officially have a dynasty on our hands. Look, bringing a trash can while the Astros are visiting your team's ballpark will always be funny. But capturing two titles in six years while finishing first in the division five times and winning more games than any other AL team is as close to a dynasty as modern baseball will allow. To do it with an almost entirely different cast of characters is impressive. It's just getting a bit stale holding a six-year-old cheating scandal against Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez and other exciting young players who were never a part of the debacle.
Kansas City Royals: At least it was a year of positive development for both Bobby Witt Jr. and Brady Singer at the major-league level. Witt went through some trying times and wound up being a roughly league average hitter by wRC+ in his rookie year, but that's still a step in the right direction for a 22-year-old shortstop without a full pro season under his belt at any level entering this campaign. Meanwhile, Singer continued to show he can be a reliable mid-rotation starter. Now, it's time for a regime led by new general manager J.J. Piccolo to build around them.
Los Angeles Angels: It just keeps getting more painful. For a little while there, it really seemed like the Angels might be good enough to stay in the wild-card hunt for the whole year. Instead, they wound up losing 14 straight, firing their manager, never getting back on track, and finishing third or worse for the fifth straight year. Now there are rumblings that Shohei Ohtani and three-time MVP Mike Trout could be moved. At least this might be the end of Arte Moreno?
Minnesota Twins: A good offseason doesn't guarantee regular-season success. The Twins have a tough time making big moves - as a small-market club, it's pretty much always been this way. However, they outsmarted the Yankees last winter, sending them Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and then used those savings to sign Carlos Correa. Despite also adding Tyler Mahle as a reinforcement at the trade deadline, it unfortunately just wasn't enough. Now Correa has opted out and will test free agency once again. It's always especially tough watching clubs go through this because you never want teams to be disincentivized from spending.
New York Yankees: In order to be an Evil Empire, don't you have to reign over something? It's been a decade now of Mediocre Monarchy at best. It's truly astonishing that for 13 seasons, the Yankees have leaned on being just good enough. And this year might be the worst of the bunch, as at the midpoint of the season, MLB fans were inundated with articles about how this Yankees club could be the one to beat the 116-win Mariners and Cubs for most victories in a single season. What'd they do? Of course, fail to even reach the 100-win plateau and get summarily swept out of the League Championship Series by a much, much better Astros club. To top it all off, their crosstown rival New York Mets outspent them. This is embarrassing.
Oakland Athletics: Viva Las Vegas? It's upsetting to think about, but this entire season seemed entirely contrived to push even more fans away from watching the absolutely brutal on-field product in the name of complaining about poor attendance, trying to leverage that into a new stadium deal, and - when that didn't work - just relocating the team elsewhere. This has been years in the making, but this season really feels like it punctuated the end of the team's residency in Oakland.
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez is MLB's next superstar, and his supporting cast isn't bad, either. In fact, the Mariners might be the next great AL powerhouse - or at least the Junior Circuit's version of the San Diego Padres - hanging with the borderline dynasty in their division that essentially everyone roots for because they're younger and more fun anyway. We know the cast by now, but Luis Castillo as the ace of a staff that includes veteran Robbie Ray as well as young stars Logan Gilbert and George Kirby bears repeating. On the offensive side, it's J-Rod leading Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and Dylan Moore. They're an objectively fun team and one that'll be easy to root for, especially now that their postseason drought is over.
Tampa Bay Rays: They continue to be a thorn in the side of every other AL team, but the sights definitely seemed set higher in the first year of Wander Franco's $182-million megadeal. The Rays are known for extending their stars on team-friendly deals and then trading them before the contract gets expensive. But Franco is the exception, with the Rays giving the 21-year-old shortstop the biggest deal in franchise history by far. Drawing huge conclusions from his first 650 plate appearances would be foolish - particularly since he battled injuries throughout the season, too. But he was rarely ever a threat to go deep and took a step back from his rookie year by wRC+. With Tyler Glasnow fully back from injury next year and full seasons from breakout stars like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs coming up, Franco taking a step forward would be a welcome development for Tampa.
Texas Rangers: You can't buy your way into contention. Of course, rational folks already knew this, but dropping $500 million on two players in one offseason certainly puts a target on your team. Feebly winning 68 games and finishing 18 back of a postseason spot is pretty brutal. At least Corey Seager and Marcus Semien delivered, and Nate Lowe took an enormous step forward as an elite slugger. Now, the front office needs to keep its foot on the pedal and address the team's biggest need: pitching. Despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park, the Rangers surrendered the fourth-most runs of any AL club, and that has to change.
Toronto Blue Jays: As constructed, this team just isn't good enough. Last winter, the front office did its best to address their departures, replacing AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray with Kevin Gausman and acquiring Matt Chapman to fill the void left by Semien. Other than that, it relied on young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to take steps forward when the former had a borderline MVP season in 2021 and regressed at an expected rate while the latter finished unbelievably hot to stay right within his career norms. It's not as though the Jays stayed frugal - there's a lot on the payroll, and extensions for Bichette and Guerrero should be top of mind this winter. But it's clear Toronto still needs more, and it could be a busy offseason.