MNF best bets: Bills to set a pace the Titans can't handle
Each Monday, we'll finish off the week that was in the NFL with a look at value spots in the remaining game - or in this case, games - under one condition: you promise not to chase. Whether Sunday provided a boost to the accounts or left a little to be desired, Monday Night Football provides an opportunity to show responsibility in your betting, as there will always be another wild Sunday to get lost in.
The first of a quasi-doubleheader begins in Buffalo, but the start time won't be too early for the Bills Mafia, who may have been camped out in Orchard Park since Friday. A hostile environment awaits the Titans, who appear to be reeling from their finish to last season. Ryan Tannehill will likely be asked to keep up with Josh Allen - who turned out to be the player some scouts hoped Tannehill would be when he entered the league as a big, fast, athletic project.
Simply put, with the extra energy from both the mini-bye week after their Thursday opener and the home crowd in prime time, I expect the Bills to play to the high end of their capabilities. Meanwhile, the Titans have replaced A.J. Brown with Robert Woods (receiving yards total: 40.5) and Treylon Burks (receiving yards total: 27.5), and they might not have much in the way of a top-end gear as a team.
Woods wasn't much of a factor in Week 1, and while Burks' projected receiving yards total might be worth an over bet in this game, there's a void in Tennessee's offensive explosiveness. The Bills' defense handled everyone other than Cooper Kupp in the season opener, and there's no one of Kupp's ilk available for Tannehill.
Offensively, the Titans' defense sets up a lot like the Rams', with Jeffery Simmons capable of similar destruction in the interior as Aaron Donald. The Bills have already seen that type of smoke and will be ready for it - especially after getting upset in Nashville last year.
Pick: Bills -6.5 first half (-110) / Bills -10 full game (-105)
Derrick Henry under 83.5 rushing yards
Dating back to before his injury last season, Derrick Henry has carried the ball 98 times, and in each game, he averaged less than four yards per carry. The last time he showed his trademark downhill explosiveness was a 76-yard run in last season's meeting with the Bills. He might record a run longer than 17.5 yards, but the game script may force the Titans into being pass-heavy, so fading Henry is the play Monday.
Ryan Tannehill over 8.5 rushing yards
Henry's still a theoretical threat and will be the focus of the Bills' run defense. Look for the Titans to ask Tannehill to take off on run-pass option plays. Plus, there's the risk of a scramble or two to evade Buffalo's pressure - something it showed it could generate against the Rams.
Isaiah McKenzie: Anytime touchdown (+200)
McKenzie would likely be next in line for a bump in overall snaps if Gabe Davis is unable to go. Even if the Bills are at full strength personnel-wise, McKenzie is still a strong threat to score. He caught a touchdown pass on a quick slant in Week 1, but he could also use his speed on a lateral play by the goal line. If you were looking for some added risk and a two-to-one payout while still buying a piece of the Bills' high-powered offense, this is safer than getting dropped through a folding table.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.