West Region betting preview: Odds-on favorite Gonzaga is ready to roll

Gonzaga takes its usual place as the No. 1 seed in the West, and the odds would indicate the Bulldogs will be back in the Final Four for the third time in the last five tournaments. However, with Duke, Texas Tech, and a potentially tough Sweet 16 matchup looming, is there value in fading the Zags?

Odds to win the West Region

The Bulldogs are the only odds-on favorite to win their region, and -186 suggests there's a 65% chance they make the Final Four. If you think it's even more likely that they make it to New Orleans, feel free to fire away at that price or better.

With Notre Dame and Rutgers squaring off on Wednesday night, it will be interesting to see how much the winner's odds change. After winning a coin flip game, the victor's odds should be split in half. We're on record about which way to lean in that game.

First-round bets to make

The first round features a handful of games I'm willing to wait on to see where the point spread goes. Boise State creeping up to +3 against Memphis or UConn dropping below -7 would coerce me into a bet.

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Arkansas (-5, 139)

I'm hoping the interest in Vermont manifests in a line drop here as well. Arkansas plays at a quick pace, which opens up the possibility for high variance but is most dangerous when the other team can outscore you. While the Catamounts have good offensive metrics from playing in a bad conference, the Razorbacks rank top-20 in defensive efficiency, and they boast four double-digit scorers, with Jaylin Williams and an armada of scoring guards led by JD Notae (18.4 PPG).

With a game lined amongst key numbers, every half-point counts. Vermont could be a trendy upset pick with 20 straight wins. However, the Catamounts haven't seen what Arkansas brings athletically, and the Razorbacks are deep enough that any foul trouble won't be an issue in the way it was at the SEC Tournament.

Pick: Arkansas (-5 or better)

Underdog sleeper to target

(3) UConn vs. (1) Gonzaga (Projected line: Gonzaga -11)

Almost every team in Gonzaga's region becomes an underdog. Even Duke would be getting more than a couple of points in a regional final matchup. However, there's another literal dog - the Huskies - that would give the Bulldogs a battle in the Sweet 16.

A balanced UConn team has the size with Adama Sanogo to protect the rim, but their pair of senior guards - R.J. Cole and Tyrese Martin - might actually give Dan Hurley the advantage at that position. The Huskies will have to get to the second weekend, but if they do, they'll give Gonzaga all it can handle.

Pick: UConn (+10 or better)

Best value bet to win the West Region

You should already be holding a Gonzaga (+400) ticket to win the tournament based on our recommendation from three weeks ago. Now it's time to find some value elsewhere in an attempt to protect that bet for a small risk.

Memphis has the higher upside in its 8-9 game with Boise State. The Tigers are playing some of the best basketball in the country since Emoni Bates left the program, but 33-1 is a little too short for me.

Looking at the bottom of the bracket, Texas Tech and Duke are in each other's way to set up a rematch with Gonzaga. They can be bet game-to-game for best value.

Davidson is capable of beating Michigan State and shocking Duke in the second round. That two-game rolling parlay would be around 6-1. Then the scariest matchup for Davidson would be as 6-point underdogs against Texas Tech. However, there's no guarantee the Red Raiders make the Sweet 16, creating the potential for a much more winnable game for the Wildcats.

Sports betting is about valuations and numbers. For example, Memphis at 50-1 would be worth a bet, and Davidson at the same number would not. With a rogue number of 100-1 at Barstool Sportsbook, it's worth a couple of bucks to see if Davidson can put on Cinderella's slipper for the first time since the days of Stephen Curry. Finding the Tigers at 50-1 would be worth a low-risk sprinkle as well.

Pick: Davidson (100-1) / Memphis (if you can find 50-1)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.