NFL Week 5 player props: Backing up back-to-back big weeks
We had our second straight big Sunday, compiling a 7-3 record in Week 4. It's almost like getting more data to know how teams will use their assets is helpful when betting player props! For Week 5, we have to go all the way to London to start our search for value.
Cordarrelle Patterson over 41.5 receiving yards
I know you're wondering where our old reliable Kyle Pitts is here. He's lined for over 50 yards for the first time this season at 60.5 because both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out for the trip over the Atlantic.
On the surface, backing Patterson seems square since his three touchdowns last week came on relatively few snaps. However, with those players out, you'd think Patterson's snap numbers should go up. While the touchdowns might not be there this week, his usage could rise.
Derrick Henry under 107.5 rushing yards
There's no Urban Meyer joke making it to print, so let's all just snicker to ourselves and move on. Derrick Henry's existence is a better reason for a Titans' win than anything going on with the Jaguars' head coach, especially since it's been such a grind for Jacksonville to stop the league's leading rusher.
You'd expect Henry to run over the Jaguars based on their historical meetings, but more relevant for our purposes is that Jacksonville has only allowed 3.5 yards per rush this year. This may invite the Titans to throw a little more, especially if they get at least one of their star receivers back.
Jameis Winston over 198.5 passing yards
OK, we've bided our time and played Winston under, but now's the time to zag. Dropping this number under 200 yards has gone too far. In a game against a very beatable secondary in Washington, any quarterback lined at this low a number should be able to crack the double-century mark.
Tyler Boyd over 56.5 receiving yards
Joe Burrow should feast with Jaire Alexander out, but I'll take the guy in the slot to exploit the Packers' lack of depth in the secondary. This one should be a back-and-forth affair from a game-script standpoint. So on sheer volume, Boyd could be one of many Bengals weapons to hit their over.
Dalvin Cook under 67.5 rushing yards
The Vikings offense should have a field day through the air against the Lions, who have lost their top pass-rusher in Romeo Okwara and already have trouble hiding a bad secondary. With Cook's ankle still an issue, the second-half carries could be doled out to Alexander Mattison, saving Cook for next week's tilt in Carolina.
Damien Harris over 70.5 rushing yards
Harris gets a breath of fresh air after facing the suffocating Buccaneers defense last week. The Texans give up 4.5 yards per carry, and Harris should get plenty of opportunity to salt away a lead late for the Patriots.
Derek Carr under 279.5 passing yards
Derek Carr thrives on taking advantage of the blitz for shots downfield. The Bears don't blitz very often, ranking fourth last in the NFL. Carr will eventually take his chances with Henry Ruggs down the field, but he might need two of those to connect to get near 300 yards.
Daniel Jones under 272.5 passing yards
I love Daniel Jones for delivering last week's outright upset win, but this number is too high. The Giants may have to throw a ton to keep up with the Cowboys' high-scoring offense, but New York could have some rare success running the ball, while its defense should force Dallas into long drives. There simply won't be an opportunity for Jones to flirt with 300 yards.
Kareem Hunt over 45.5 rushing yards
Brandon Staley usually welcomes the run game from his opponent, but the Browns will be happy to oblige in this case. Nick Chubb's number is 83.5, and that's a little too healthy for me. Instead, I'll take Hunt to break a few decent runs, especially in the second half.
Deebo Samuel over 3.5 rushing yards
This one's a little cute. Trey Lance is getting the call Sunday, which means more run than pass plays for the 49ers. Those rushing plays should consist of various misdirections and include players like Samuel via end-arounds or reverses. This might come down to whether the quarterback exchange happens in the form of a tap pass forward or a lateral flip, but we'll see if Samuel can get some yards off a pitch against the Cardinals.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.