Best bet to win each National League division
Opening Day is less than two weeks away, which means time is running out to grab the best preseason values for each of MLB's six divisions.
On Monday, we broke down the three American League divisions. Here are our favorite values in the National League.
NL East
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +120 |
| New York Mets | +150 |
| Washington Nationals | +800 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +1000 |
| Miami Marlins | +3000 |
The Braves have won this division for three straight seasons, and they could be even better this year with newly signed Charlie Morton and a recovering Mike Soroka headlining a star-studded rotation. And just look at their lineup, which features three MVP contenders in Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies.
Still, watch out for the Mets, who dropped Francisco Lindor into one of MLB's best batting orders. Jacob deGrom remains the top pitcher in baseball, and he anchors a tantalizing rotation that should hit its stride if Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard return at full strength. Outside of health, there's not a lot to be concerned about here, especially at this price.
The Marlins provide some slight intrigue with all of their talented young arms entering 2021. Those hurlers likely won't receive a full workload after a short season in 2020, which caps the upside of a club without enough hitting to carry the load.
Pick: Mets +150
NL Central
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | Even |
| Cincinnati Reds | +350 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +350 |
| Chicago Cubs | +450 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +10000 |
I'm buying the Cardinals in the World Series market after a disastrous 2020 season when everything seemed to go wrong. But I don't love this price, as it implies that baseball's most competitive division is already St. Louis' to lose.
That couldn't be further from the truth. The Reds posted the league's worst BABIP (.245) by a wide margin in 2020. If that normalizes, their top-end pitching can help support a division-title run. The Cubs, meanwhile, won their third NL Central crown over five seasons in 2020, and Chicago's offensive upside is still elite, even if the team's rotation is suspect without Yu Darvish.
However, the real value lies with the Brewers, whose dominant bullpen and above-average rotation form the core for a successful season. If Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura can bounce back from surprising 2020 slumps, Milwaukee could quietly emerge as the division's best team.
Pick: Brewers +350
NL West
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -300 |
| San Diego Padres | +200 |
| San Francisco Giants | +3500 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +5000 |
| Colorado Rockies | +5000 |
This could be the most exciting division race in baseball if the Dodgers and Padres get peak performances from their rotations in 2021.
What's the difference between the two rosters? San Diego features two superstar hitters in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, while Los Angeles' entire lineup is stacked with former MVPs and current front-runners. But it's too close of a race to bet the Dodgers at this price, especially with injuries threatening every team after a stop-and-start 12-month period.
Staying away is probably the best route here, but if you must get in on the action, the Padres are the better bet as slight underdogs. They finished a mere six games back in 2020, and the club has improved after a splashy offseason. Take the plus-money and enjoy the ride.
Pick: Padres +200
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.