1 of these 7 teams will win the NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament is appealing to bettors because, in theory, any team in the field can win it all. But is that actually true? Twelve schools have combined to win the last 22 national titles, and almost all of those squads were perennial contenders with similar statistical profiles.
In fact, champions during the KenPom era possess shared characteristics that can help us narrow this year's field to a select few. Can another team win? Sure. But for the sake of simplicity, let's rule out the schools that history suggests hold virtually no shot at taking the title.
The lowest-seeded champion in NCAA Tournament history was a No. 8 seed, so here are the odds for every top-eight seed in the 2021 field:
| Team | Seed | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 1 | +180 |
| Baylor | 1 | +350 |
| Illinois | 1 | +400 |
| Michigan | 1 | +600 |
| Houston | 2 | +1300 |
| Iowa | 2 | +1500 |
| Alabama | 2 | +2000 |
| Florida State | 4 | +2000 |
| Ohio State | 2 | +2200 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | +2500 |
| Texas | 3 | +2500 |
| Arkansas | 3 | +3000 |
| Kansas | 3 | +3000 |
| West Virginia | 3 | +3000 |
| Connecticut | 7 | +3000 |
| Creighton | 5 | +3500 |
| Virginia | 4 | +3800 |
| North Carolina | 8 | +4000 |
| Texas Tech | 6 | +4000 |
| Villanova | 5 | +4000 |
| Tennessee | 5 | +4500 |
| USC | 6 | +4500 |
| Colorado | 5 | +5000 |
| Loyola Chicago | 8 | +5000 |
| Oregon | 7 | +5000 |
| Purdue | 4 | +5000 |
| Oklahoma | 8 | +5500 |
| San Diego State | 6 | +7000 |
| LSU | 8 | +7500 |
| Clemson | 7 | +9000 |
| Florida | 7 | +9000 |
| BYU | 6 | +11000 |
The pretenders
The easiest stat to use while narrowing the field is also the most important: Adjusted efficiency margin, which tracks a team's scoring margin per 100 possessions adjusted for the opponent.
Every national champion since 2002 has entered the tournament as a top-25 team in that metric, which quickly erases over a quarter of the field this year. Better luck next season to Oklahoma State (+2500), Texas (+2500), West Virginia (+3000), North Carolina (+4000), Oregon (+5000), Oklahoma (+5500), LSU (+7500), Clemson (+9000), and Florida (+9000).
They say defense wins championships, but offense has been the driving force for nearly every winner over the last 19 years. All but one ranked 21st or higher in adjusted offensive efficiency, and star Shabazz Napier carried the lone exception (2014 Connecticut) while ranking second in KenPom's Player of the Year standings as the catalyst for the Huskies' offense.
That effectively rules out Alabama (+2000), Arkansas (+3000), Kansas (+3000), Texas Tech (+4000), Tennessee (+4500), San Diego State (+7000), and BYU (+11000), as all of those teams lack a top-25 offense or a top-10 player in the mold of past champions.
However, offense isn't the only factor, as every title winner since 2002 has ranked 37th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency. That's a bad sign for Baylor (+350), Iowa (+1500), Florida State (+2000), Ohio State (+2200), Creighton (+3500), and Villanova (+4000).
And how about good 'ol wins and losses? Not every team has played the same number of games in this unprecedented season, but a champion hasn't posted a win percentage below 74% since 1997. Say your final goodbyes to Connecticut (+3000), Colorado (+5000), and Purdue (+5000).
The contenders
So, where does that leave us?
Here are the seven teams with the balance, resume, and overall strength to threaten for this year's tournament title, and how those squads rank in adjusted efficiency margin, offensive efficiency, and defensive efficiency.
| Team | Odds | Overall | OFF | DEF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga (26-0) | +180 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Illinois (23-6) | +400 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Michigan (20-4) | +600 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Houston (24-3) | +1300 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
| Virginia (18-6) | +3800 | 11 | 12 | 33 |
| USC (22-7) | +4500 | 14 | 30 | 19 |
| Loyola Chicago (24-4) | +5000 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
Gonzaga (+180)
What's left to say about Gonzaga, the second-most efficient team in KenPom history? The only knock against the Bulldogs is their level of competition. Every champion's strength of schedule this century ranked in the top 33, and the Bulldogs cruised while easily navigating the nation's 94th-toughest slate. But we'll give the nation's top team a pass after a season with cancellations and funky scheduling.
Illinois (+400)
It shouldn't be surprising to see Illinois on this list after it blitzed the country's best conference over the second half of the season. The Fighting Illini boast two top-10 players in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, and they're one of two teams with a top-seven offense and defense.
Michigan (+600)
That other team is Michigan, which has become somewhat of a dismissed No. 1 seed amid injury concerns. At full strength, though, the Wolverines could win it all with their talent and resilience after losing just four times throughout a grueling Big Ten slate.
Houston (+1300)
Few are backing Houston as a serious championship contender despite its near-flawless record and title-worthy balance. The Cougars blew out Texas Tech earlier this year, and they face one of the easiest paths to the Elite Eight of any top seed.
Virginia (+3800)
If not for COVID-19 issues that led to Virginia's early withdrawal from the ACC Tournament, we might be talking more about the Cavaliers' chances to repeat as national champions. Tony Bennett's group features one of the most efficient offenses in school history, and it's less prone to a 3-point barrage on defense than in recent years.
USC (+4500)
If you haven't heard of Evan Mobley, get ready to hear his name a lot over the weekend. USC's star 7-footer is the key to the Trojans' punishing inside attack and elite interior defense, which is a potential game-wrecking combination against the right teams.
Loyola Chicago (+5000)
We noted that Loyola Chicago is a mid-major worth targeting before the season, and again highlighted the Ramblers' title upside a month ago. This team is better than the one that reached the Final Four in 2018, and it easily provides the best value among legitimate title contenders.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.