East Region betting preview: Fade Michigan, buy these 2 surging teams
Michigan is back as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993 when the Wolverines reached the title game for the second straight year. However, Juwan Howard's group faces arguably the toughest path for any top seed in this tournament.
Odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament East Region
| TEAM | SEED | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 1 | -120 |
| Alabama | 2 | +400 |
| Florida State | 4 | +450 |
| Texas | 3 | +500 |
| Connecticut | 7 | +750 |
| Colorado | 5 | +800 |
| LSU | 8 | +1300 |
| BYU | 6 | +1500 |
| Maryland | 10 | +2200 |
| St. Bonaventure | 9 | +2200 |
| UCLA | 11 | +2200 |
| Michigan State | 11 | +2500 |
| Georgetown | 12 | +4500 |
| Abilene Christian | 14 | +5500 |
| UNC Greensboro | 13 | +6000 |
| Texas Southern | 16 | +7500 |
| Iona | 15 | +8000 |
| Mt. St. Mary's | 16 | +8000 |
Should you bet the favorites?
If Isaiah Livers is healthy, Michigan (-120) is primed for a Final Four run. If he's not, it's tough to justify this price. The Wolverines are 13-0 when Livers scores at least 12 points and 7-4 when he doesn't. That includes Saturday's loss to Ohio State, during which they fell behind by 13 late in Livers' first game on the sidelines.
Michigan's roster woes open the door for Alabama (+400) or Texas (+500), two of my best bets from the preseason to win it all. The Crimson Tide join Gonzaga as the only teams ranked in the top 10 in defense (second) and tempo (ninth), which is a difficult combination to prepare for on short notice. Alabama can also shoot the lights out; it earns 40.2% of its points from beyond the arc, the third-most of any tournament team.
Texas, on the other hand, boasts one of the country's most talented starting fives and has the experience and athleticism to make a deep tournament run. The Longhorns' defense has dropped off since a top-10 start, but Shaka Smart's group will still make you earn every bucket.
Which lower seeds can make a run?
It feels like everyone is sleeping on Colorado (+800), which has won six of its last seven games and features one of the best guards in the country in McKinley Wright, an elite passer and aggressive scorer. The Buffaloes are also one of just five teams in the nation with a top-20 offense and top-30 defense, which is a strong bellwether for eventual title teams.
I'd be remiss not to mention LSU (+1300), which went toe-to-toe with Alabama in the SEC final and has an offense worth betting to win the whole thing. The issue is defense - the Tigers put virtually no pressure on the ball and allow too many threes, though forcing 16 turnovers against Arkansas on Saturday was a step in the right direction.
The real dark horse in this bracket is Michigan State (+2500), which is more talented than a No. 11 seed but has played worse than one almost the entire season. The last three weeks have been an exception, as the Spartans beat Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan to sneak into the tournament. Tom Izzo reached the Final Four as a No. 7 seed in 2015 and could threaten a run here.
What teams should you avoid?
The easy answer is Michigan based on its short price and uncertainty surrounding Livers. If he's healthy, it's hard to knock the prices on any of the top-five seeds in this region.
Connecticut (+750), though, is a clear outlier. The Huskies have won five of their last six games but have just one win against a top-10 seed in this year's tournament. Bettors hoping for a run like 2011 or 2014 are placing too much faith in James Bouknight, who isn't quite the college sensation that Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier were in those respective title runs.
Best bet to win the East Region
Alabama +400
I love what Nate Oats has done at Alabama. This season has had a Final Four feel since the team won nine straight to open conference play. The Crimson Tide have won 20 of their last 23 games, with six coming against top-30 teams in adjusted efficiency margin, and they've proven capable of winning big or coming from behind late. This team is legit.
So is Texas, which won the Big 12 Tournament and would be a fascinating challenger to Alabama in the Sweet 16. I'd recommend playing either at its current odds, but the Crimson Tide are my pick to emerge from this region and potentially give Gonzaga a run for its money in the semifinal.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.