The PGA Championship delivered in many ways. Most notably, it crowned a deserving champion in Collin Morikawa, who was highlighted in last week's preview but ultimately passed on due to his inexperience in majors. Let's not make that mistake again!
Thankfully, the PGA Tour continues with the Wyndham Championship, closing out the regular season. The event provides players with the opportunity to improve their position ahead of the FedEx Cup playoffs while presenting bettors with another chance to cash in on a winner.
Comparable venues: Hilton Head (RBC Heritage), Sea Island (RSM Classic), Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
Here's a notable trend that stresses the importance of iron play at Sedgefield.
2019: J.T. Poston (-22) over Webb Simpson
2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21) over Webb Simpson, C.T. Pan
2017: Henrik Stenson (-22) over Ollie Schniederjans
2016: Si Woo Kim (-21) over Luke Donald
2015: Davis Love III (-17) over Jason Gore
2014: Camilo Villegas (-17) over Bill Haas, Fredrik Jacobson
2013: Patrick Reed (-14) over Jordan Spieth
2012: Sergio Garcia (-18) over Tim Clark
2011: Webb Simpson (-18) over George McNeill
Let's start with Koepka. The biggest question: Why is he playing this week? He's coming off a disappointing final round at the PGA Championship while battling a knee issue. It's also his sixth straight tournament, with the playoffs right around the corner. It would be shocking to see Koepka give 100% effort, which makes him easy to pass on.
Next is Simpson, who historically dominates at Sedgefield. He won in 2011 and has back-to-back runner-up results. If you want to bet Simpson at +800 before the tournament, come back four days later to tune in on Sunday - you will likely have something to cheer for down the stretch.
|Si Woo Kim||+4000|
Justin Rose stands out at +2000 for a few reasons. First, he easily could have been priced beside Casey - and no one would have thought twice - so Rose is definitely an option from a value perspective. Secondly, showing flashes of his iron game last week helped him play very well, and he has been successful at courses similar to Sedgefield in the past.
Ryan Moore (+4000) won on this course in 2009 and is striking the ball beautifully over his past few starts. He gained 7.3 strokes on approach shots at the 3M Open and turned in three sub-70 rounds at the Barracuda Championship two weeks ago.
Kisner gained 4.9 strokes on approach shots at the PGA Championship and has two career wins at comparable venues to Sedgefield. Henley leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green over his last 12 and 24 rounds, so one week of putting will put him in contention. And Im is an elite talent who is currently struggling but is being mispriced compared to the field.
The talent gap between players priced at +3000 and those in the +5000 and higher range is essentially nonexistent.
Joaquin Niemann (+5000) is one of those players who is far better than his odds suggest. The 21-year-old ranks third in the field in strokes gained: approach over his past 24 rounds. Six starts ago, he was also in the mix at the RBC Heritage on a course that's similar in style to Sedgefield.
Here are a few other long shots to consider:
Doc Redman (+7500): The North Carolina native should feel right at home this week. He's been playing some great golf since the break with a stellar approach game, and it's encouraging to know his best career finish came at a Donald Ross course.
Henrik Norlander (+10000): The 33-year-old Swede was garnering a lot of buzz before the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and PGA Championship - tournaments he did not play in - because he gained over four strokes through approach shots in three of his last four events. Additionally, his two best results on Tour came at the RSM Classic, which is a comparable venue, and he finished 2013's Wyndham tied for 16th.
Sam Burns (+17500): This price is flat-out wrong. Burns is a fantastic young talent who should be more like +10000. His best performances tend to come on Bermuda grass, and he's gained at least four strokes tee to green in three of his last five starts.
Will Gordon (+20000): The 24-year-old North Carolina native grew up an hour west of the country club and should be comfortable playing in his home state. He also proved he could make a ton of birdies with his top-five finish at the Travelers Championship. A few weeks ago, Gordon's price was around +8000, so +20000 is a steal.
Justin Rose (+2000)
This selection is more of a play on long-term record over recent success. With that said, Rose showed flashes of rounding into form with his match play at TPC Harding Park last week. He skipped the WGC-FedEx St. Jude after three straight missed cuts and returned at the major, recording his best strokes gained-approach number in over a year.
He's also a former winner at Colonial - another tight, tree-lined course that doesn't emphasize distance off the tee. If Rose truly is about to peak and contend, his +2000 number is fantastic value considering this week's field.
Sungjae Im (+4500)
Im isn't nearly the same player he was before the break when he claimed his first Tour title at the Honda Classic. However, +4500 are long odds for the seventh highest-ranked player in the field.
He also tends to perform better on Bermuda grass, sharing sixth place at last year's Wyndham. Additionally, he gained 1.5 strokes off the tee and almost shot through his approach game in Round 2 of the PGA Championship last week, even though he ended up missing the cut. If Im plays close to the level he's shown this season, +4500 is a bargain.
Joaquin Niemann (+5000)
Niemann shouldn't be +5000 in this field. He won at the Greenbrier in September of 2019, which shares some characteristics with Sedgefield. Also, you better believe Niemann took notes as he watched fellow young gun Morikawa hoist the Wanamaker Trophy last week. He'll surely be motivated to rejoin the conversation surrounding the best players under the age of 25.