Jaguars 2020 player props: More Minshew Mania
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Three years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars were one quarter away from making the Super Bowl. Entering the 2020 season, they're projected for the league's fewest wins.
Oh, how fast a window of opportunity can close.
The 2019 Jaguars were a mess from the start. Quarterback Nick Foles, who signed a four-year deal during the previous offseason, suffered a serious injury in the opener and didn't register a win over his four starts. He was recently traded to the Bears, allowing Gardner Minshew to get a second season of experience before the franchise possibly finds a more stable option under center.
Minshew's the hot commodity today as we discuss the Jags' 2020 props, starting with how we're leaning on his touchdown total.
Gardner Minshew - O/U 23.5 touchdown passes
Over: +105
Under: -125
As an undersized quarterback with an average arm, Minshew isn't Jacksonville's long-term answer. But he deserves credit for what he did as a rookie.
PFF graded Minshew as the 20th-best quarterback in 2019, the season's top mark from a first-year passer. Despite fumbling problems and religiously trailing, Minshew posted a respectable stat line of 3,271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just six interceptions over 14 games.
His touchdown total for 2020 is a tad higher at 23.5. If the next campaign plays out how I think it will, this is a green light to the over.
Jacksonville is a 'dog in every game this fall, and on five occasions, the Jaguars are expected to get double-digit points. A year after ranking No. 9 in pass-play frequency, expect the offense to jump into the top five, especially with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden calling the shots.
The Jags lack the personnel to run the ball efficiently, as their offensive line will be a bottom-10 unit, and running back Leonard Fournette is allergic to the end zone. And when will they be able to run? Perhaps there will be opportunities over the first couple of possessions during each game, but don't expect the team's offense to storm out to any big leads and sit on the ball.
Minshew essentially tripped and fell into 21 touchdown passes last season while starting just 10 games and developing chemistry with his receivers on the fly.
With D.J. Chark's emergence, DeDe Westbrook at his peak age, Chris Conley trending up, and newcomer Laviska Shenault Jr.'s presence, the weapons certainly surround Minshew to get him past the number.
Pick: Over
Leonard Fournette
Fournette's luck is almost laughable at this point. In 2019, he was the league's only player to record 300-plus touches and score three or fewer touchdowns.
The offensive line didn't do him many favors, either. Jacksonville was one of just eight NFL teams to average fewer than two yards per carry before contact.
If you can find a touchdown prop on Fournette, play the over.
Chris Conley
Conley is coming off a breakout year after recording career highs in catches (47), yards (775), and yards per reception (16.5). It's scary to think what he could have done if everything went right.
Minshew finished with the third-best rating on deep passes, according to PFF. However, on balls tossed 20-plus yards downfield to Conley, Minshew posted just a 26% catchable deep ball rate, the fifth-worst among throws to any receiver in the league.
Conley could absolutely improve on his 2019 numbers, so don't sell high on him as a breakout player.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.