NFL betting: Biggest gaps between win totals, Super Bowl odds
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Win totals and title odds aren't mutually exclusive, but performing well during the regular season won't necessarily translate to a Super Bowl title.
When examining both markets, obvious flaws in pricing emerge. Here, we'll highlight the three teams with the largest gaps between their win totals and Super Bowl odds for the 2020 season and discuss whether these discrepancies provide any value.
Chicago Bears
Win total: 8 (over -110/under -110)
Super Bowl odds: +1500
Remember that 12-4 season for the Bears in 2018? It feels like forever ago.
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had infinitely more weapons in his second year and the defense led the league in takeaways. Despite the potential for regression in the latter column - turnover margin tends to balance out over time - Chicago deserved its strong record. You can actually make a case that the Bears were slightly unlucky, as they performed like a 12.2-win team.
But following an 8-8 season in which Chicago played like a 7.4-win team, I can't get behind a squad that's just 15-1 in the futures market. The defense lost a ton of names from last year's unit, while the jury is still out on a Nagy-led offense. I'd much rather have a position on the Cowboys, Eagles, or Steelers at the same exact price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win total: 9 (over -145/under -105)
Super Bowl odds: +1000
A team that's been mostly irrelevant among NFL fans closes the 2019 campaign out with some momentum, then proceeds to go all-in to construct a talented, all-world offense? The Buccaneers are clearly the Browns of last offseason. After winning the popularity vote in the betting markets, all Cleveland had to show for it was a 6-10 season. Will Tampa Bay see a similar fate?
Kudos to the Buccaneers for being active. They not only brought in quarterback Tom Brady during free agency but also worked a trade with the Patriots to acquire tight end Rob Gronkowski. It's not every day that a team catapults from 55-1 to 10-1 just by bringing in a 43-year-old QB and a formerly retired tight end, but here we are.
I applaud the Buccaneers but can't get on board with how the market's responded. There's absolutely no value whatsoever taking a team of Tampa Bay's caliber and hoping it can mow through the NFC's elite. The Buccaneers have the talent to flirt with nine wins during the regular season, but they shouldn't have the fifth-shortest odds to win the title.
Minnesota Vikings
Win total: 8.5 (over -130/under +100)
Super Bowl odds: +3300
We always like finding sleepers, so why not Minnesota for 2020? The Vikings have certainly been in the mix under head coach Mike Zimmer, reaching at least the second round of the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. They aren't necessarily regression candidates, either - Minnesota played better than its record last season and based on the overall outlook of the NFC North, it should be considered division favorites.
After trading wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Bills and losing offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to the Browns, the Vikings' bandwagon isn't crowded. But if you're offering 33-1 on a team that will likely toy with double-digit wins, in a division that doesn't scare me, I'll take it every day of the week.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.