Inside the sportsbook: Jay Rood discusses NFL draft, sports returning
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It's been just over a month since the NBA suspended its season in response to the coronavirus outbreak, but it feels like an eternity since sports bettors have had a regular slate of games to bet on. Sportsbooks have felt the squeeze, too, though next week's NFL draft and chatter about football returning in the fall have generated some optimism in the betting community.
We caught up with Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to discuss the excitement around the NFL draft and to find out how sportsbooks are coping without sports and what they're expecting in the fall.
Betting without sports
With much of the sports world on hiatus, books have been forced to completely rework their betting menus. Some have shut down wagering entirely, particularly those that rely heavily on in-house bets.
theScore Bet has continued to offer wagers, even if the available offerings have looked a little different. Rood admits it's been a bit more work than usual to create appealing slates for bettors during this slow period.
"We've been booking some soccer leagues that I didn't know existed," Rood said. "We're doing a little bit of Taiwanese baseball and Taiwanese basketball. We're trying to find sports that Americans can relate to."
That doesn't mean there are no available bets related to major sports leagues, though. theScore Bet has released NFL futures odds for the Super Bowl, MVP, win totals, division winners, statistical leaders, and more over the last month, in addition to a similar list of bets for college football.
It's a positive sign for bettors looking forward to football season, Rood says, and a distraction for the casual consumer as they wait out life without sports.
"We're looking to the future, to when things start to unfold here and when life gets back to normal, instead of pushing a bunch of goofy stuff like table tennis down people's throats. There will be plenty of time for betting when this is all over," he said.
When will sports return?
That time to bet, hopefully, will be before the football season is scheduled to begin in the fall. Optimism can only go so far when projecting the coronavirus' effect on leagues resuming play, but to this point, Rood and his team are operating with a "business as usual" approach in their preparations.
"We still have plans of expansion with clients," Rood said, referring to methods of reaching new markets such as Colorado and Indiana. "We’re preparing to get ready for a full season of fall sports. And what comes before that, we're kind of viewing as a bonus."
The planned return of the PGA Tour in June is a hopeful start, as are talks of creative ways to preserve the NBA and MLB seasons. Rood says his book still holds weekly meetings about its fall plans, which include expanding offerings for football.
"You've got to prepare like it's going to happen, and that's what we're doing." Rood said.
Rood expects the NFL to start on time, especially if advancements in testing are initiated before the projected September kickoff. Still, regulations must be instituted before football season can proceed as usual, given the sheer number of players and coaches in the professional and college ranks.
"If social distancing is still a requirement and all those people aren't isolating together, it's hard to see how that can occur," Rood said. "I think things have to look pretty normal in regular society to get back to playing football."
That could mean a delayed start to football season or, as many leagues have considered, starting games without fans in attendance. The latter could have an effect on pricing lines as it would largely negate home-field advantage, but a shortened campaign presents its own challenges, too.
If NFL teams play fewer than 16 regular-season contests, for example, most books would have to refund win totals and any futures dependent on a 16-game campaign. Those offerings would likely return to the oddsboard after revised pricing, but only if the NFL can provide fair warning of a condensed schedule to allow books the necessary time to adjust.
"The last thing we want to do is start and then stop," Rood said. "I would much rather see it pushed back and finish an abbreviated season.
"That's everybody's fear: Let's not have to do this again."
NFL draft
As we await more information on the start of the NFL season, bettors can satisfy their itch next week with Thursday's draft, which is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated wagering events of the summer.
Draft betting has only been legal in New Jersey for a few years, and it'll carry some books this month as the sports world focuses its gaze on the virtual event. theScore Bet is offering roughly 60 props for next week's draft, and Rood expects bettors to be active.
"If they can bet something that looks like NFL football," he said, "even if it's just what team a player goes to, I think people want to do that. Because that's some sense of normalcy."
That's not to say the draft comes without risk for books, which typically lower limits on events like this given how little precedent and statistical modeling can protect them from major liabilities.
Most of the action so far at theScore Bet has come from wiseguys playing the arbitrage market, while the public is still probably a few days away from hitting most props. When it does, it could lead to some major value on the board.
"This draft is pretty tough to handicap," Rood said. "All these prices that we're making are really, really big assumptions. We've seen NFL decision making in the front office that makes you shake your head."
Even if the draft ultimately costs books some money, it's a small price to pay to keep bettors occupied. There are bigger things than sports betting to worry about right now, Rood says, and he understands betting will eventually return to normalcy.
"It's not as much about making money right now; it's about engagement," he said. "That's what people need right now - distract them a bit, keep them entertained. Whether they make a bet or not is kind of besides the point."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.