NFL championship weekend teaser: Avoid the obvious

by
Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Sometimes it's hip to be square, but the most public play on the board this weekend - possibly of the season - will be teasing the two favorites.

Whether its a teaser or a moneyline parlay, books will probably get cleaned out if the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers each win. That doesn't mean it won't happen - but I want no part of it anyway.

We nailed our divisional-round teaser, so let's keep the momentum going.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 53)

This line seems like something of an overreaction to last weekend's games. The Titans put up 28 points against the stingy Baltimore Ravens, while the Chiefs scored so many touchdowns that Arrowhead Stadium ran out of fireworks.

Kansas City scored at will because Houston had the worst defense of any team to make the playoffs. The Texans finished 30th in yards allowed per play while giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt and ranking 31st on third downs. The Chiefs may have allowed 31 points, but that number is misleading; the Texans scored two of their three early touchdowns on a blocked punt and a 6-yard drive stemming from a Tyreek Hill fumble, then racked up some yards late after the Chiefs took a 17-point lead. Despite what the scoreline suggests, Kansas City's defense has played much better recently, and Houston's offense managed just 5.7 yards per play.

The Titans were also the beneficiaries of short fields. Three of their four touchdown drives started inside Baltimore territory, stemming from a fumble, interception, and turnover on downs. However, the Titans threw for just 83 yards (45 on one play) and only gained 5.7 yards per play. Defensively, Tennessee put in an outstanding effort against the Ravens, limiting the league's best offense to 12 points on 5.8 yards per play.

Derrick Henry is the key to the Titans' success on this playoff run, and his contributions will be crucial again Sunday as the team strives to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Tennessee doesn't stand a chance in a shootout, so expect it to work the clock and slow the tempo, making 59 points far too high a total.

Pick: Under 59

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 45)

At the risk of upsetting the entire state of Wisconsin, let me say that the Green Bay Packers are a very overrated football team. They played just three non-divisional games against playoff clubs all season. Green Bay beat the Chiefs while Mahomes was injured but lost to the Eagles (at home) and the 49ers (37-8).

Despite a friendly schedule, the Packers posted league-average numbers. Their offense was 17th in the NFL in yards per play, 19th in third-down conversion percentage, and 14th in points per game. Based on yards allowed per play on defense, they ranked 19th overall, 19th against the pass, and 24th against the run. Much like their divisional-round opponents, the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers have overachieved and are due to regress.

There's nothing misleading about the 49ers' results, though. They rank fifth on offense in yards per play and first on defense. Getting back Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt made the defense virtually impenetrable against the Vikings and the same should be true against a Packers offense that San Francisco limited to eight points on 2.8 yards per play in Week 12.

A lot can change in a couple of months, which is why it's often foolish to put stock in previous meetings. But the Packers are the same team they were at the end of November, while the 49ers are better after the returns of some key players.

Pick: 49ers -1.5

Full teaser: Titans/Chiefs under 59, 49ers -1.5 ($110 to win $100)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Advertisement