NFL Week 14 underdog plays: 49ers, Raiders, Chiefs
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
It was another 2-1 week for our underdog plays in Week 13, with both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos winning outright. Only some suspect refereeing on Monday night cost us the sweep, as the Minnesota Vikings failed to cover in Seattle.
This week we're gunning for perfection and outright wins.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -2.5
This will be the toughest test of the season for the Saints' offense, which hasn't looked anywhere near as potent this season compared to years past.
Drew Brees is largely feasting on weak defenses and leaky secondaries, but he faces a massive challenge here against a 49ers defense that ranks second in DVOA. San Francisco's secondary also leads the NFL in DVOA, and the team's pass rush ranks second in the league in sacks and first in QB pressure percentage.
That's a concern for Brees, who has struggled this season against teams that rush the quarterback effectively. He's posted a 60.7 completion percentage with two touchdowns and two interceptions when pressured this season, compared to 77.7 with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions from a clean pocket.
The other worry for the Saints is a run defense that's slightly overrated. The unit's overall yards allowed per game is low because teams are often playing from behind, but New Orleans has given up 4.1 yards per carry this season (11th).
In their two losses this season, the Saints have allowed a combined 247 yards on the ground (excluding quarterback rushes) and 4.3 yards per carry against the league's 25th- and 30th-ranked rushing offenses. The 49ers' rushing offense is ranked second.
Pick: 49ers +2.5, 49ers ML
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Line: Titans -3
This line reflects the Titans at their highest value and the Raiders at their lowest.
Tennessee has won five of its last six games, but four of those victories came at home, while the other was on the road against an Indianapolis Colts team riddled with injuries on offense. Oakland, meanwhile, has lost two straight in embarrassing fashion while being outscored 74-12. Both of those games were played away from home, though, and we get some excellent value on the Raiders here as a result.
Oakland isn't nearly as bad as its last two results suggest, and the club is significantly different at home. The Raiders are 4-1 at the Coliseum this season compared to 1-5 away from it, and they return home this week in a prime bounce-back spot with an over-reactionary line generating plenty of value.
This is also a sandwich spot for the Titans, who travel across the country for a later start between a pair of divisional games. They won a critical matchup against the Colts last week and will host the Texans in Week 15, the first of two meetings with Houston over the last three weeks of the season. Those contests will likely decide the AFC South.
Pick: Raiders +3, Raiders ML
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -3
Always bet the Patriots coming off a loss, right? You've been hearing that all week and will continue to until kickoff. But a deeper dive exposes that thinking as a fallacy.
With Bill Belichick as the head coach and Tom Brady at quarterback, the Patriots are 10-14 ATS as home favorites coming off a loss. They're also just 15-13 ATS overall at home after losing the previous week. From an ATS perspective, the trend of the Patriots being dominant after a loss simply doesn't exist.
"But New England is going to play angry!" And?
Teams play to win every week, so don't buy that angle either. And if you do like that narrative, then consider the fact that the Chiefs will be out for revenge themselves following a heartbreaking loss to the Patriots in last season's AFC Championship. Both teams want to win this game, so anyone who tells you New England wants it more can't be taken seriously. Kansas City can still earn a bye with a win.
Here's what matters: The Patriots rank 14th in passing offense DVOA and 16th in rushing. Their offense is 23rd in yards per play and 14th in yards per game, and the Chiefs rank second and fourth, respectively.
New England's defense is as stout as it gets, but quarterbacks capable of buying time in the pocket and making plays with their legs have gashed the unit. Kansas City's defense, meanwhile, looks to be hitting its stride while getting more opportunistic. The group has created seven turnovers over the last two weeks, and that aggression made the Chiefs' defense so dangerous last season.
In a game that will likely come down to which quarterback can make more plays, it's hard to believe in Tom Brady over Patrick Mahomes given what we've seen from the 42-year-old over the past month.
Pick: Chiefs +3, Chiefs ML
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.