NFL Week 12 underdog plays: Bengals, Jets, Broncos

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Underdog covers were scarce in Week 11, with favorites posting a 9-4-1 record against the spread. Just two 'dogs won outright - the Jets (+1) over the Redskins and the Falcons (+3.5) over the Panthers.

However, it's the revenge of the 'dog in Week 12, with three such teams in a good spot to cover the number.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Steelers -7

What exactly has the Steelers' offense shown lately to warrant laying seven points on the road? Mason Rudolph has really struggled under center, leading just three touchdown drives over the last three weeks.

This week, Rudolph will be without James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster, while Diontae Johnson appears to be on the wrong side of questionable. That would leave James Washington and Johnny Holton as the starters at wide receiver, with Jaylen Samuels getting the bulk of the carries. It'll be painful to watch this unit operate.

The Bengals, led by Ryan Finley, will have their hands full against an aggressive Steelers defense, but getting seven points at home in what will likely be a game of field goals is too much value to pass up.

Pick: Bengals +7

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets

Line: Raiders -3

Any discord between Adam Gase and his players seems to be shelved for now. The Jets have turned a corner over the last two weeks, actually resembling a competent football team. It helps that Sam Darnold is finally playing with a bit of confidence in what was initially expected to be a breakout sophomore season; he's thrown five touchdowns and just one interception across the last two games.

Darnold will face a Raiders defense that is certainly capable of being attacked. The young pivot has struggled mightily against aggressive fronts, but Oakland hardly gets after the opposing quarterback. The Raiders are last in QB knockdowns and 30th in QB pressures. That should equate to a comfortable day in the pocket for Darnold, who's completed 72.7% of his passes with a quarterback rating of 98.4 when kept clean, compared to 48.4% and 54 when under pressure.

Also working against the Raiders is a long trip across the country for an early start to their first road game since Week 8. Meanwhile, it could be something of a look-ahead spot before a massive AFC West showdown against the Chiefs.

Pick: Jets +3

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Line: Bills -4.5

Vic Fangio must make some changes if he wants to last as a head coach in this league. The Broncos have lost four games by four points or fewer, as poor clock management and questionable play-calling late in games have been the primary culprits. Still, Fangio has Denver playing some really good football on both sides on the ball, and this team is capable of putting a scare into the Bills at New Era Field.

Despite the close losses, Fangio's defense ranks inside the top 10 in just about every major category this season. The unit is fourth in yards allowed and second in red-zone defense, which will pose a real challenge for an underwhelming Bills unit led by Josh Allen, who ranks 26th in quarterback rating. Allen has a tendency to pad his stats against weaker teams - and the Bills have faced a lot of them this season - while struggling to lead the offense against the league's tougher defensive units.

The Bills' defense has often masked the offense's issues, but it hasn't been great against the run. Over the past four weeks, Buffalo has been gashed on the ground by the Browns (147 yards), Redskins (127 yards), and Eagles (218 yards). That could play right into the hands of Denver's formidable rushing attack, and it should keep some pressure off quarterback Brandon Allen, who made a number of impressive throws in his first two starts. The Broncos will be in this game from start to finish, with a chance to win it late.

Pick: Broncos +4.5

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.