World Series betting preview: Astros vs. Nationals
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It was only around five years ago when it was preposterous to declare the Houston Astros the Goliath of any matchup. Now, they enter the World Series for the second time in three seasons to take on the Washington Nationals, who have played the role of David all year since they waved goodbye to Bryce Harper.
The Astros are, as expected, the heavy favorites, despite the fact that the Nationals haven't lost since Oct. 6. Can Washington continue its surprising run by defeating the preseason co-favorite, or will Houston make it two titles in three years?
Series odds
After slaying the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series, the Astros are sizable -230 favorites to win the World Series at theScore Bet - the same odds the Dodgers had of beating the Nationals in the National League Division Series. Washington is +190 to win it all after entering the playoffs as an 18-1 shot.
Those feeling particularly confident in the favorites can bet the Astros to win in four games (7-1) or five games (4-1) at reasonable odds. A Nationals sweep, like they had against the St. Louis Cardinals, would pay out at 20-1.
Betting trends
Can these Astros be stopped? Houston has won seven of its last eight playoff series and is 22-15 (59.5%) in postseason games since 2017 - 12-5 when Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole get the start.
Neither pitcher has faced the Nationals since joining the Astros, though Washington has found recent success against elite pitching. Since August, the Nats are 8-3 against pitchers with an ERA below 3.10, which applies to Houston's trio of Verlander, Cole, and Zack Greinke.
The Astros have also excelled in that same spot, with a 17-5 record on the year, including 8-2 since the All-Star Break. Houston is 7-2-1 to the over in those games, so perhaps this year's Fall Classic will feature more runs than oddsmakers expect.
Washington is entering this series on fire, as it's won 16 of its last 18 games, including six in a row. But that may not help the Nationals here. Of the last eight teams to sweep their league's championship series, only one has gone on to win the World Series. Since 2004, those teams are 0-5 in Game 1 and 0-5 in the series, with four of them ending in five games or fewer.
MVP picks
Gerrit Cole, Astros (7-1)
Cole has been an absolute flamethrower this postseason, fanning an ALDS-record 25 batters in two games against the Tampa Bay Rays and following that up by striking out seven more in a shutout win over the Yankees. His stellar playoff performances coupled with an AL-leading 2.50 ERA and 13.8 K/9 during the regular season could weigh on voters' minds and help him clinch the honor if he's even just above-average in an Astros win. If he's better? It's his award to lose.
Jose Altuve, Astros (10-1)
Altuve's mantle is already decorated with an ALCS MVP award, and another clutch performance against the Nationals would make it hard to deny him a second straight individual trophy. However, Altuve is hitting a full 0.45 percentage points worse this year against right-handed pitching - his series-clinching shot was against lefty Aroldis Chapman - so he'll have to dig deep against starters Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Anibal Sanchez.
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (14-1)
Scherzer has the shortest odds of any Nationals player at 13-1, but it's Strasburg who boasts Washington's best ERA this postseason (1.64) to go along with an astounding 33-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The best way to get to this Astros lineup is to pound the zone, so if the Nationals manage to pull this off, expect Strasburg to spearhead the campaign.
Anthony Rendon, Nationals (15-1)
Rendon has carried the Nationals' bats this postseason with a team-leading slash line of .375/.465/.594, and he was a legitimate MVP candidate during the regular season. If he can best the Astros' starters or get a well-timed crack on Houston's bullpen, the Rice product has a strong enough narrative to capture the award against his hometown team.
Zack Greinke, Astros (37-1)
Greinke's postseason struggles and championship inexperience have been well-documented. There's no better way to silence that talk than to show out in the World Series. His miserable 6.43 ERA this postseason has rightfully priced him as a long shot, but he's too talented to be getting 37-1 odds, which are the worst of any starting pitcher on the board.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.