World Series and MLB pennant odds: Astros, Dodgers on collision course
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With the MLB regular season behind us, just 10 teams remain in the hunt for a World Series trophy. It should come as no surprise which two teams lead the pack heading into October.
The Astros and Dodgers are perched atop the AL and NL oddsboards, respectively, each with 5-6 (-120) odds to win their league and secure a spot in the Fall Classic. Both teams are 2-1 to win the World Series.
The Yankees (4-1 to win the World Series) are close behind, while the Cardinals and Twins (8-1 each) round out the teams with shorter than 10-1 odds. All four wild-card clubs are priced at 18-1 or longer to win it all.
Here are the updated postseason odds for all 10 teams, with a breakdown of a few potential values on the oddsboards:
American League odds
| TEAM | TO WIN WORLD SERIES | TO WIN PENNANT |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 2-1 | 6-5 |
| New York Yankees | 4-1 | 9-5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 8-1 | 4-1 |
| Oakland Athletics | 18-1 | 8-1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 30-1 | 15-1 |
National League Odds
| TEAM | TO WIN WORLD SERIES | TO WIN PENNANT |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2-1 | 6-5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 8-1 | 4-1 |
| Atlanta Braves | 10-1 | 9-2 |
| Washington Nationals | 18-1 | 9-1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 25-1 | 12-1 |
Houston Astros
Houston and Los Angeles appear to be a clear notch above the rest, and if it does come down to those two at the end, give the Astros the edge. With MLB's best record, they would enter that series with home-field advantage - and that extra game could prove to be the difference.
Houston enters the postseason having won 66% of its games at home with a 74.7% winning percentage as home favorites. The Dodgers were road 'dogs just seven times this year with a 2-5 record. The top of the rotation will likely decide this one, and the home-road splits also favor Houston.
When starting one of its top-three pitchers - Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler - Los Angeles was a phenomenal 36-8 at home but just 25-20 on the road. The Astros went 39-11 at home with their trio - Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Wade Miley - and an impressive 34-17 on the road.
You could wait until the World Series to bet Houston as short home chalk, or you could swallow the risk and net more than double the profits for buying early. Given this team's elite hitting and pitching profiles, now's the time to strike.
Atlanta Braves
September wasn't the kindest month to the Braves, who lost five of their last six to limp into the playoffs as the NL's No. 2 seed. Still, Atlanta is among baseball's most complete squads with a potent lineup, strong defense, and capable young staff.
The Braves boast MLB's second-best hard-hit rate (41.4%) behind the NL-leading Dodgers (42.3%), anchored by a stellar top four of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson. Their deep rotation and resource-heavy bullpen have posted top-eight numbers by most advanced stats since the All-Star break, including a league-leading 1.42 ground balls per fly ball, which limits volatility and pairs well with a top-eight fielding unit, per FanGraphs.
None of it screams "World Series favorite," nor should it. At 10-1 to win it all, the Braves are versatile and capable, and that makes them a quintessential value play in a high-risk postseason.
Washington Nationals
Since the advent of the wild-card system in 1994, 12 wild-card teams have reached the World Series and six have won it. If the Nationals can get past an overachieving Brewers team, they're good enough to challenge for the pennant.
Washington is among the best in the field at hitting against velocity, which suggests the Nationals' above-average lineup could exceed expectations through the rigors of postseason pitching. They've got an ace of their own in Max Scherzer, who will start Tuesday's wild-card matchup and has the ceiling to steal two games on his own in a looming five-game series with L.A.
Buying Washington now means getting a discount for the risk of a Tuesday loss. Is a pennant win likely? No. Is it worth a lengthened 9-1 shot? Certainly.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.