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Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 7:
I'm waiting for it. That week where I check the opening totals and see that the market finally caught up to the fact Baylor just isn't the team people think they are. And every week I breathe a sigh of relief, wondering why these totals continue to open as high as they are.
I could say the same thing about Texas Tech. Head coach Matt Wells has a better defense than offense right now with a backup quarterback running the show. I firmly believe if you changed the names of both programs, we'd see a total in the low 50s. But here we are, yet again, with an inflated number - and I'll continue to pick them off.
Baylor's slowly but surely transitioning into a Temple-like team under Matt Rhule. Last year, the Bears' offense was too fast and inefficient. They ran roughly 80 plays per game but only averaged 5.6 yards per play. This season, it's reversed. Baylor's right around 66 plays per game, but posting 6.8 yards per play. Once Rhule gets a lead, he's going to run the ball, make conservative calls in the passing game, run it some more, and lean on his star-studded defense. Given they're 11-point favorites and catching Texas Tech off an emotional upset win over Oklahoma State, I expect more of the same game plan in what should ultimately be a low-scoring affair.
I thought last weekend was a good time to buy Arizona as a four-point underdog at Colorado. I don't like the matchup as much against Washington, and it starts with the Wildcats' offense against the Huskies' defense.
Last week against the Buffaloes, quarterback Khalil Tate took advantage of a weak secondary. He threw for more than 400 yards with four touchdowns. Washington's defensive backfield is young, but I trust them more than I do Colorado. And given Tate isn't running the ball as much this season, the Huskies' defense should be able to dial up pressure and let the secondary match up with a mediocre Arizona receiving corps.
I expect Washington's offense to rebound after putting up 13 points in last week's loss to Stanford, but they showed that when they're bad, they're bad. The receivers had trouble getting any separation and perhaps head coach Chris Petersen got a bit too conservative after playing in a couple of shootouts early in the season.
This is a PAC-12 after dark tilt, but not one that should be all too electric.
Last week we recommended the under between Colorado State and San Diego State, citing potential problems for the Rams' offense against a stout defense. Week 7 should see Colorado State get right back on track against a New Mexico defense allowing 6.9 yards per play this season.
The Lobos threw up consecutive duds on offense after erupting for 50-plus in Week 4. The perfect remedy? A defense that's been marginally better than their own - Colorado State has allowed 6.4 yards per play this season.
Expect pace, and expect points.
If there's one thing you need to know about Temple head coach Rod Carey, it's that he's going to win games with his defense. He's done it all season long and should follow the script against an undefeated Memphis club.
The Owls are currently top 10 in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.0; Memphis, a shootout team a season ago, is right inside the top 25 at 4.7. This one feels like it'll play out similar to Maryland-Temple back in Week 3 when the Owls showed out with their best defensive game of the season and did just enough offensively to put away a Big Ten team at home.
Two backup quarterbacks take the reigns when BYU's Jaren Hall and South Florida's Jordan McCloud meet Saturday. The drop-off from Zach Wilson to Hall is significantly steep, as the former masked a ton of flaws for BYU's offense. McCloud injected life into the Bulls' offense last week with a shellacking of UConn, but, yeah, it's UConn. These are still two teams that boast better defenses than offenses in what should be another low-scoring tilt in Week 7.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.