CFB Week 6 buy or sell: A rare spot to back Texas

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Every week, we're diving into which teams are too low or high in the betting markets ahead of the weekend.

Here's what we're seeing leading up to Week 6.

Buy - Texas

Week 6: -11.5 at West Virginia

Texas is rarely attractive enough to bet. The Longhorns are flawed, overhyped, and banged up. But they also have a blue-blood program, meaning they'll catch plenty of action on a weekly basis. However, 11.5 points might be a tad short in this spot.

West Virginia is a quiet 3-1 heading into Week 6, albeit after narrow wins against FCS Weber State and Kansas, and another victory over a rebuilding North Carolina State team. The Longhorns' defense might struggle against the pass this season, but the Mountaineers field a weak offense. They're averaging 4.6 yards per play in 2019, roughly two yards fewer than the Longhorns. Texas also holds the strength of schedule edge after already playing two potent offenses in LSU and Oklahoma State.

It won't happen often this season, but rolling with the Longhorns in this spot is as good as it gets.

Buy - Arizona

Week 6: +4 at Colorado

Arizona has seldom been talked about after losing outright as a 10.5-point favorite at Hawaii in Week 0.

The Wildcats have ripped off three straight victories since then, including wins over Texas Tech and UCLA. They're currently trotting out a top 10 SP+ offense, and although their defensive rank is a bit lower (No. 80 in the country), the Wildcats allowed only 31 points to the Red Raiders and Bruins. That's pretty remarkable considering the team total for those opponents was 37 and 32, respectively.

I'm still not particularly high on Colorado. The Buffaloes earned a comeback win over Nebraska in Week 2 and caught Arizona State in a bad spot in Week 4.

There are some injury concerns for Arizona offensively after quarterback Khalil Tate and running back J.J. Taylor missed the UCLA game. But with the Wildcats quietly trending up, I'd grab the points.

Buy - Florida International

Week 6: -26.5 vs. UMass

Florida International hasn't been impressive to start the season. The Golden Panthers head into Week 6 with a 1-3 record overall, and they're 0-4 against the spread. However, Saturday's game against lowly UMass provides an opportunity for FIU to get back on track.

The Minutemen won their first game of the season last Saturday over Akron. Prior to that victory, their point differential was -121 over the first four weeks. With FIU coming off a bye and UMass playing its first road game in three weeks in the humidity, this one likely gets out of hand sooner than later.

Sell - Temple

Week 6: -12 at East Carolina

East Carolina showed last week in its win over Old Dominion that the Pirates prefer a slugfest. They should get another one on Thursday night when Temple visits.

The Owls earned their 20-17 statement win over Maryland in Week 3. But are we sure the Terrapins are all that competent? Penn State blanked Maryland last week 59-0.

Outside of that win over a Big Ten team, Temple beat up on a lifeless Georgia Tech squad and lost by 16 on the road at Buffalo. The program is 3-1 against the spread this season, but new head coach Rod Carey is still trying to find his footing.

This line is a couple of points high against an East Carolina team that prefers the type of slow pace we should see on Thursday night.

Sell - Rice

Week 6: -8.5 at UAB

Rice might be the nation's best awful team. The Owls dropped to 0-5 overall last week after a loss to Louisiana Tech, but they still covered, pushing their ATS record to 3-1-1 this season. Rice enters Week 6 on a 6-1-1 run ATS dating back to last year, and the Owls are 5-0 ATS over their last five away from home. But I don't like this spot at UAB.

Rice had a chance to win its first game of the year last Saturday before losing in overtime. Now the team plays its first road game in roughly a month against a Blazers defense that's top 15 in both yards and points allowed per game.

There will be plenty of times to target Rice, but Week 6 isn't one of them.

Sell - Cal

Week 6: +17.5 at Oregon

Cal entered Week 5 as a top-15 team in the polls, and the wind was immediately taken out of the Golden Bears' sails last Friday.

Starting quarterback Chase Garbers suffered an apparent shoulder injury against Arizona State in Week 5, and the Golden Bears dropped their first game of the season. Garbers has been ruled out indefinitely, a crushing blow considering he was coming off throwing for 357 yards and four touchdowns on the road at Ole Miss. Now the Golden Bears turn to backup Devon Modster, who filled in for Garbers during the ASU loss.

I don't want anything to do with Cal on the road at Autzen Stadium against a Ducks team fresh off a bye, even if the Golden Bears are catching three scores.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.