Skip to content

6 takeaways from NLDS Game 1s: Bunting is bad, Buehler is boss

Rob Leiter / Major League Baseball / Getty

Both National League Division Series matchups got underway Thursday, with the St. Louis Cardinals storming back to beat the Atlanta Braves in an epic finish and the Los Angeles Dodgers winning their opening bout against the Washington Nationals.

After two winner-take-all wild-card games, one might have expected the NLDS openers to feature less urgency. Instead, both Game 1s unfolded in epic fashion with multiple storylines to breakdown.

Please, stop bunting

With human refrigerator Brian McCann stationed on second base and Dallas Keuchel headed up to the plate with a one-run lead in the second inning, Brian Snitker made the loathsome call to have his pitcher bunt.

What happened? As foreseen by everyone except Snitker, the Cardinals were able to throw the 35-year-old catcher out at third base on a fielder's choice, making it a two-out inning with Keuchel on first; the Braves traded an out to have a runner go back one base.

Let's compare the run expectancy of the outcome Snitker hoped for - McCann advancing to third on a sacrifice - to the run expectancy of the situation in which Keuchel entered, and then the run expectancy Keuchel's bunt actually produced:

Situation Run Expectancy
Runner on 3rd; 2 out 0.413
Runner on 2nd; 1 out 0.644
Runner on 1st; 2 out 0.214

Maybe managers wouldn't feel forced to call for bunts if pitchers weren't being forced to hit. Seriously, can we get pitchers out of the batter's box already?

Even Lance McCullers Jr. clamored for the universal designated hitter after watching Walker Buehler attempt to get a bunt down in the Dodgers-Nationals contest.

Acuna brings the good ... and the bad

Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

Well, Braves fans. There's some good news and some bad news.

The good news: Superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. certainly seems to be at full health, hitting a no-doubter to left-center in the ninth inning.

The bad news: He doesn't seem to have learned from his mid-August benching for failing to run on a deep fly and turning a double into a single - because he did the exact same thing Thursday.

Acuna wound up upsetting his own team on the play, drawing the ire of McCann and Snitker, as well as Ozzie Albies.

He also seemed to upset Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez with a trot around the bases on his ninth-inning homer. With at least two games remaining in this series, expect this storyline to stick around.

Braves' bullpen

Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Acuna's baserunning aside, the Braves suffered another blow that may have cost them Game 1 - and potentially more. Up 3-1 late, Atlanta called upon Chris Martin to handle eighth-inning duties. But the midseason acquisition - who struck out an incredible 31.9% of batters faced down the stretch with an immaculate 1.5% walk rate - was forced to leave with left oblique tightness and could now be shelved for the remainder of the series.

That forced Snitker to instead turn to Luke Jackson, who had a 5.65 ERA in the second half of the regular season. Jackson wound up allowing two runs, spoiling the late lead and forcing Mark Melancon to come in and attempt to get four outs.

If Atlanta's bullpen is shorthanded, this could be a quick series; even when healthy, this relief corps posted a collective 4.21 ERA and 4.49 FIP while ranking 21st in the majors in WAR, according to FanGraphs.

Playoff Bellinger

Rob Leiter / Major League Baseball / Getty

One of the Dodgers' biggest worries entering the postseason was which version of Cody Bellinger would show up. Right now, it looks like it might be the bad version - the version that entered Thursday with a .172/.226/.336 postseason slash line.

Bellinger spent all season proving he could actually hit against lefties and will likely win the NL MVP award as a result. In Game 1, Bellinger took a pair of walks against left-handed starter Patrick Corbin but was also punched out twice - once each by Corbin and Fernando Rodney.

Nats' bullpen will be their undoing

Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

It's something we've known all year, but it can't be overstated: This Nationals bullpen is simply terrible. They ranked dead last in the NL by ERA during the regular season, and things haven't improved much in October.

Tanner Rainey was the first guy out of the 'pen Thursday. Much of his stuff looked filthy, but he still wound up allowing a walk and a hit while facing three batters.

Next up was Fernando Rodney. He entered with two on and one out to face Bellinger, of all people. It worked out, but Dave Martinez hardly created an ideal matchup, and Max Muncy did cash in a couple of insurance runs later in the frame.

To top it all off, Hunter Strickland came in and allowed homers to Gavin Lux and Joc Pederson.

Everyone in this Dodgers lineup can mash, particularly against right-handers; the Nats' starters will have to be perfect for the rest of this series.

Buehler the boss

Rob Leiter / Major League Baseball / Getty

There are plenty of instances in which baseball fans rightly lament managers' decisions. But let's give some credit to Dave Roberts for tabbing his rotation's youngest starter for the tall task of Game 1. Because the fact is, Walker Buehler is also the rotation's best starter.

That might seem blasphemous considering Hyun-Jin Ryu flirted with a sub-2.00 ERA for the majority of the season and Clayton Kershaw is a three-time Cy Young winner. But the numbers speak for themselves:

Pitcher IP ERA FIP K% WAR
Walker Buehler 182 1/3 3.26 3.01 29.2 5.0
Hyun-Jin Ryu 182 2/3 2.32 3.10 22.5 4.8
Clayton Kershaw 178 1/3 3.03 3.86 26.8 3.4

It's really no wonder Buehler became the first National League pitcher in history to go six or more innings while allowing two or fewer hits in back-to-back postseason starts.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox