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NFL betting: 5 teams to fade in Week 1

David Eulitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The NFL season is finally here. The seven-month wait is over with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers kicking things off Thursday night, followed by a full slate of games Sunday.

Week 1 is a bit different because the lines have been up for three months, allowing sharp bettors to take advantage of early numbers. Still, there is value in certain matchups that bettors can exploit. Here are five teams bettors should look to fade or avoid this weekend.

Washington Redskins (+9.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Redskins enter 2019 with a lot of question marks, and the biggest one is on the offensive line. Stud left tackle Trent Williams is holding out and won't play versus the Eagles. Losing Williams is bad for Washington under any circumstances, but it's even worse when the guy replacing him is journeyman Donald Penn, who was signed off the street in July. Lining up next to Penn at left guard is fellow swinging gate Ereck Flowers. Now you know why Washington isn't starting rookie Dwayne Haskins in Week 1.

The Redskins do have an underrated defense and the Eagles are a little overvalued here, but it's hard to trust Washington given its issues on the offensive line. The Redskins are 0-4 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two NFC East foes and the favorite is on a 4-0 run ATS run in the series. Lay the points.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The line for this game was Chargers -3 all summer. Then Andrew Luck shocked the world by announcing his retirement, moving the line to seven. While there's no doubt Luck is worth a couple of points to the spread, Los Angeles going up to -7 feels like an overreaction. Jacoby Brissett isn't Luck, but he doesn't need to be. The Colts have vastly improved their defense, offensive line, and running game over the last two seasons. They are a much more talented team than the one Brissett led in 2017 when Luck was injured.

Sharp money has already come in on the Colts, causing some books to move off the key number of seven, down to 6.5. Follow the money and take the 'dog in this matchup.

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals' new-look offense struggled at times this preseason. However, let's focus on the other side of the ball: Arizona's defense looks like hot garbage. The front seven can't stop the run, All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson is suspended six games, and the other starting corner, Robert Alford, is out with an injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury will each be making their NFL debuts, while Detroit's underrated offensive line should have its way with Arizona's defensive front.

The line opened Lions -1 but quickly moved to -2.5 with sharps hammering Detroit. It's even gone to -3 at some sportsbooks because the public is also backing the Lions in Week 1. Sometimes a heavy public play wins, especially early in the season. Fade the Cardinals as a short home 'dog in Week 1.

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals opened as a 7.5-point underdog but the line moved to 9.5 once it was announced receiver A.J. Green will miss the game with an ankle injury. Just like the Colts-Chargers game, the two-point swing is a bit of an overreaction. While the Bengals are projected to be one of the NFL's worst teams this season, they do have the talent, especially on the defensive line and at the skills positions, to keep the game close.

The Bengals and Redskins are the two biggest underdogs in Week 1, but Cincinnati is in a better position to cover the number against a Seattle team that's just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven September games. Look for the Bengals to stay within the 9.5-point spread.

Houston Texans (+7) at New Orleans Saints

At first glance, the Texans may look like a live underdog catching seven points Monday night. Well, look again. They have the offense to keep up with the Saints - it's their defense that's the problem. Houston finished 28th in pass defense last season and could be even worse after trading away Jadeveon Clowney.

The line hasn't moved off seven all summer, with bets split evenly between the two teams. However, don't get suckered into taking the points. The Texans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and they'll struggle to stop the Saints' explosive offense in the Superdome. New Orleans will win a 41-24 kind of game to cover the seven points.

Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.

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