The Masters: Best bets for this week's action at Augusta National

The first major of 2019 is here.

Augusta National will host a small 87-man field this week for the Masters, golf's Superbowl for the sports betting world. The smaller field makes it easier for players to advance to the weekend, as the top 50 (including those tied at the bottom end) or any player within 10 shots of the lead after Round 2 will make the cut.

The 7,475-yard par-72 track will test every component of a player's game, which is just one of the reasons Augusta is so special. Length off the tee, precision with iron shots, an impeccable short game, and experience on the tricky putting surfaces are all keys to success. Perhaps the only skill which isn't overly important is driving accuracy, as the rough at Augusta isn't very penalizing.

There is so much history at the Masters, and it's one of the few events for which past performances can truly be indicative of the future. Here are a few noteworthy trends to digest prior to diving into the picks:

• Eight of the last 10 champions have been shorter than 50-1 to win entering the week.
• However, all eight were above 10-1, meaning no tournament favorite has won in the last decade.
• In the year prior to claiming the green jacket, eight of the last 10 winners finished T-38 or better.
• None of the last 10 winners entered the week with negative strokes gained: off the tee or strokes gained: approach.
• The last first-timer to win the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
• Riviera Country Club is the most comparable course on Tour to Augusta, with Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Mike Weir, and Adam Scott all winners at both venues since 2003.

With an emphasis on current form, Masters experience, and players with the all-around skill set to succeed at Augusta, here are the best bets for this week:

Outright to win

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

There are some concerns about Koepka's weight entering the 2019 Masters. He admitted last month after his missed cut at The Players that he's lost 22 lbs and felt out of sorts during the tournament. However, two weeks prior to that, he finished tied for second at the Honda Classic.

Koepka's diet has somehow become the focus rather than the fact he's won three of the last six majors he's played in. He notoriously treats majors weeks differently than regular Tour events, as he works harder to limit off-course distractions and puts more time into his preparation.

He's played the Masters three times and improved his result each year, recording T-33, T-21, and T-11 finishes, respectively. He sat out last season's event due to a wrist injury and said he's never been 100 percent healthy for the tournament.

Koepka has it all: length, pin-point iron play, great touch around the green, and he can pour in putts from inside 10 feet better than anyone. He's the definition of a big-game hunter and his 25-1 number is really a bit disrespectful.

Bubba Watson (33-1)

Watson is a two-time Masters champion who's showing signs of solid form entering this week's tournament, and he should be shorter than 33-1. He's made five straight cuts, a run which includes two top-four results. Watson's also gained strokes tee to green in six straight tournaments, which has been backed by a lethal off-the-tee game.

Augusta has a history of favoring lefties, and Watson loves playing there. He appears to have adjusted to his new putting grip and is hitting the ball off the tee in the same fashion he was prior to his 2014 victory. The odds that Watson joins elite company with his third green jacket are likely better than 33-1, making this a number to capitalize on.

Bryson DeChambeau (33-1)

For a golfer with four worldwide wins since late August, DeChambeau isn't garnering nearly enough attention to win the Masters. Yes, his play has dropped off since a baffling performance in Mexico, but he showed signs of life with a T-20 at The Players.

DeChambeau was the low amateur at the 2016 Masters and finished T-38 last season despite losing nearly six strokes on the greens, according to Joe Peta. If anyone is going to figure out Augusta faster than those also looking for their first major win (including Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, and Rickie Fowler), it will be DeChambeau.

J.B. Holmes (150-1)

Going off the board to pick a long shot at the Masters is a risky endeavor, but it can also be a very profitable one. Two winners in the past 10 years have been longer than 100-1 to win: Charl Schwartzel and Angel Cabrera.

Holmes may be the most likely underdog to steal the green jacket this week. He won earlier this season at Riviera and finished T-4 at the 2016 Masters. The 36-year-old certainly has the length to handle Augusta and capitalize on the reachable par-5 holes. If you want a slightly safer option, though, you can get Holmes to finish in the top 10 at 9-1.

First-round top 5

Charley Hoffman (10-1)

The Masters produces different betting options that are rarely seen in golf, such as a top-five finish after the first round.

Enter Hoffman, a first-round superstar at Augusta. Since 2015, he has the second-best Round 1 score relative to par at 16-under. He also ranks second in Masters history in strokes gained per round on Thursday, according to the 15th Club's Justin Ray.

Hoffman is peaking at the perfect time, too, as he shot 64 and 67 in his closing two rounds en route to a runner-up finish at the Texas Open last week.

Tournament matchups

Francesco Molinari (+105) over Justin Thomas

After coming out of the gates hot in strokes gained: approach, Thomas lost shots with his irons in two straight weeks since the Honda Classic. Likely fueling that was a right wrist injury he suffered during that tournament when his follow-through struck a tree. Additionally, Thomas hasn't finished inside the top 15 at Augusta in three attempts.

Meanwhile, Molinari is playing extremely well in the lead-up to the Masters. He won at Bay Hill three events ago and made a run in the WGC-Match Play, in which he finished third. This is an opportunity to take an underdog who has a real chance to contend.

Hideki Matsuyama (-105) over Paul Casey

Matsuyama and Casey are no slouches at Augusta. Both players have made four straight cuts and each has multiple top-seven showings. The case for Matsuyama over Casey is blowup potential, which the latter displayed when he finished nearly dead last at The Players.

Matsuyama is trending toward a win, with five or more strokes gained: tee to green in six straight tournaments. Plus, he's being slightly undervalued as the 'dog in this matchup.

Odds courtesy: Bodog