5 best AL win total bets for 2019
We took blind stabs at American League win totals for 2019 when they were released in January. Now that rosters are rounding out and the market is shaping some of these numbers, here are our five favorite over/under bets:
(Check out our five best National League win totals here.)
Chicago White Sox - Under 75.5
Leading the majors with 9.84 strikeouts per game last season, the White Sox whiffed harder than any other team this winter. A 62-win club aiming to add a franchise cornerstone was a legitimate contender in both the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sweepstakes, but that now feels like a pipe dream; Machado signed with the San Diego Padres and Harper talks have cooled.
There aren't many sub-.500 teams that garner more attention than the White Sox. Why? Probably due to their farm system, which is considered one of the best in the majors. Sure, the future looks bright, but most of their top prospects are still lottery tickets until they prove themselves at the next level.
The team won't have Michael Kopech, who underwent Tommy John surgery in September. Eloy Jimenez has the tools to become a star but might be the only regular contributor in the pipeline. Yoan Moncada is still trying to put it all together. Meanwhile, none of their young pitchers figures to reach elite status for a rotation replete with question marks.
The White Sox are "projected" to make a 13- or 14-game leap from last season, tied for the largest improvement in the majors. Despite a bright future that feels like a consolation prize for underachievement, this roster - on paper - does not have 76 wins in it.
Baltimore Orioles - Under 60.5
It wasn't long ago the Orioles were fixtures in the AL, anchored by Machado, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and a pitching staff that collectively topped 10.0 WAR during an 89-win 2016 campaign. Fast forward to 2019 and here is Baltimore's projected lineup:
- Cedric Mullins
- DJ Stewart
- Jonathan Villar
- Trey Mancini
- Chris Davis
- Mark Trumbo
- Renato Nunez
- Chance Sisco
- Richie Martin
That shouldn't inspire much confidence, nor should the rotation, which is too graphic to list.
The market tends to overcorrect on teams like the Orioles: Team X wins 47 games, the public sees the projected roster and drives the number down, and voila, there's actually some value on the over. But Baltimore is so short on talent that even 61 wins is asking too much.
Los Angeles Angels - Over 83.5
The Angels are the pinnacle of baseball mediocrity. Some teams would kill for a string of 80-something-win seasons. But the Angels - thanks in large part to Mike Trout - are held to a higher standard and are looking to finally break through.
Except we don't necessarily need a breakthrough; we just need the Halos to surpass the 83.5-win mark, an achievable feat based on the roster.
Trout, Justin Upton, and even Albert Pujols - albeit to a lesser extent - are perfect for Angel Stadium, which is one of the best parks for homers per High Drive. It certainly makes the addition of Justin Bour more intriguing. Bounce-back candidates such as Zack Cozart - who lost more than 100 games due to injury - and Kole Calhoun - one of the unluckiest hitters in 2018 by xwOBA standards - should also benefit.
The rotation looks shoddy, but so does the rest of the AL West outside of the Houston Astros.
New York Yankees - Over 95.5
We won't spend much time on the Yankees because we know what they are: a contender with few - if any - holes on the roster.
The Yankees finished with 100 wins in 2018 and we think they top that number this year. We're buying into a Gary Sanchez rebound one year after he hit .186. Giancarlo Stanton went through some staggering rough patches but is the favorite to lead the league in homers, and the rotation looks stronger with James Paxton in the fold.
Oh, and have you seen that bullpen? FanGraphs is projecting a unit that finished with a 7.7 combined WAR last season to be even better.
It isn't often that 95.5 wins looks short. But in the Yankees' case, this is the year to win the division, and probably the whole thing.
Minnesota Twins - Over 84.5
The Twins are much closer to the projected 90-win Indians than they are to the other three bottom-feeders in the AL Central. The pitching staff will likely get roughed up plenty, but a lineup that can mash the ball should help mask that weakness. Getting the White Sox, Royals and Tigers for roughly a third of the regular season should also help Minnesota pile up the wins.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.