Fantasy: 7 players who will lead you to a title in 2018
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
No fantasy owner's draft plan should be so rigid as to classify any player as a "must-own," but it's wise to enter yours with a short list of names to target. Below, we identify seven players we believe will be key to winning a fantasy title this season.
You shouldn't expect to get them all - that's probably impossible - but if you build your draft plan around selecting at least a few players on this list, you'll greatly increase your chances of fantasy glory this season.
Average draft position (ADP) data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
One of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football is that it's supposed to be fun. Owners often obsess over their lineups, attempting to extract every ounce of value while forgetting that sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.
Watson was arguably the best fantasy storyline of 2017 despite playing just seven games before tearing his ACL. After settling into the starting role in the opening two weeks, the Texans' first-rounder went on one of the most prolific runs we've ever seen from a quarterback, scoring 19 total touchdowns over the next five games. His ridiculous 9.3 percent passing-TD rate is completely unsustainable moving forward, but that doesn't mean Watson won't be an elite option. It just means he won't produce at historic levels all the time.
Watson proved the upside is there, and we know the talent is set up around him to unlock high-end production. That half-season glimpse into what his fantasy future could hold was enough to make him one of the first three quarterbacks off the board this year, worthy of a fifth-round pick. Just think of how enjoyable it'll be to sit down and watch Watson rack up week-winning performances for your team.
Jay Ajayi, RB, Eagles
No matter how hard we try to forecast it, fantasy can be extremely unpredictable. One day you own a struggling running back on the Dolphins, and the next he's been jettisoned midway through the season to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. In 10 games with Philly, including three playoff appearances, Ajayi averaged 5.3 yards per carry while playing in a committee backfield and learning the offense on the fly.
Heading into his second year with Eagles, Ajayi will have a full offseason to familiarize himself with the playbook. He'll also be the only big back on the roster after LeGarrette Blount signed with the Lions. Darren Sproles and Corey Clement will be mixed in, but Ajayi is the clear lead rusher in an offense that finished third in scoring last season. He's also due for some positive regression in the touchdown department, after finding the end zone just twice following the trade.
Even with his situation improving, fantasy owners seem hesitant to pull the trigger on Ajayi, whose ADP has him being selected as a mid-range RB2. Outside of the top 15 backs, he offers as much upside as anyone and needs to targeted in the third round.
Sony Michel, RB, Patriots
The general sentiment toward any Patriots running back has been outright frustration, with fantasy owners often choosing to avoid the situation altogether for fear that the unpredictable Bill Belichick will get the best of them. It's a legitimate concern for anyone who went all-in on Mike Gillislee at the start of 2017. However, a closer look at New England's rushing attack shows just how productive it's been - in both real life and fantasy.
The Pats ranked top 10 in rushing yards the last two seasons and employed a fantasy RB1 each year with Blount (RB6 in 2016) and Dion Lewis (RB12 in 2017). And the last team you'd expect to use a first-round pick on a running back saw something in Michel. With that kind of draft capital invested, there's no doubt the rookie will be given a chance to carry the lead-back torch.
Aside from Saquon Barkley, Michel was my favorite RB prospect this year, with Alvin Kamara-type upside given his combination of speed, vision, patience, and a willingness to initiate contact when needed. He's also one of the best pass-blockers in his draft class. The only question will be ball security, but the Patriots wouldn't have used a high pick on Michel if they didn't think that was a correctable issue. Be ready to pull the trigger on the rookie in the fourth round.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
More people need to be talking about Baldwin's fantasy ceiling for the upcoming season. We've seen this set-up before around the Seahawks' star wideout, and the result is a monster campaign.
The last time Seattle was missing Jimmy Graham in the lineup was 2015, when he was sidelined with an injury late in the season. Baldwin went on an absolute heater in the second half, ending the year with a league-leading 14 touchdowns. He followed that up with another top-10 fantasy showing in 2016. And even in a down year when he failed to eclipse 1,000 yards, Baldwin still came in just outside the WR1 ranks in 2017.
With Graham now in Green Bay, Baldwin's true fantasy potential will once again be unleashed. The Seahawks' defense is no longer a juggernaut, which could result in more high-scoring games and more passing as Russell Wilson tries to play keep-up. It may feel early, but you should start considering Baldwin in the late second round.
Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots
Hogan's resume doesn't look that impressive at first glance. He's never topped 700 yards or eclipsed five touchdowns in a single campaign. However, he had the fourth-most fantasy points among receivers from Week 2 to Week 8 last season before a shoulder injury derailed him.
Julian Edelman returning from a torn ACL would be a concern if Brandin Cooks was still on the team, but Cooks moving to the Rams leaves Hogan's target share intact. In fact, the trade could increase his fantasy upside beyond where it was last year. Per Pro Football Focus, Hogan does the majority of his work 20-plus yards downfield, which should allow him to take advantage of the deep-threat void in the offense. Edelman's four-game suspension should also allow Hogan to establish his role in the offense early in the year.
Drafting a hardworking wideout with a nose for the end zone in a high-scoring offense is a middle-round investment that will keep your fantasy team playing deep into December.
Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins
Stills was one of our recent dynasty buys, as a player being wildly overlooked by fantasy drafters. His redraft ADP is certain to rise as the season nears, but Stills can be had for a late-round pick despite finishing as a top-30 fantasy receiver in each of the last two campaigns.
Stills saw a career-high 105 targets last year, and that number should increase since the Dolphins are missing 49.4 percent of their 2017 targets after the departure of volume-hog Jarvis Landry. The always-enticing DeVante Parker profiles as a No. 1 receiver, but he's yet to deliver on his potential and the hope that he'll reach that level as a pro is dwindling. With Ryan Tannehill back under center, Stills' touchdown upside gets a bump after the duo combined for nine end-zone appearances during their last full season together two years ago.
Stills, not Parker, will lead Miami in most receiving categories this season, and is an ideal WR3 for fantasy owners who are willing to wait on the position. Hopefully his stock doesn't blow up too much over the next few months, allowing you to scoop him up in the late rounds.
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles
This spot was reserved for Hunter Henry before the young Chargers tight end was lost for the year with a torn ACL. Breakout candidates like Trey Burton and George Kittle are also excellent options, but Ertz offers elite production at a cheaper cost than Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce.
Finding a consistent performer at tight end can be difficult, but Ertz topped 12 PPR fantasy points in 11 of his 14 outings last season, and averaged 76 receptions and 831 yards over the last three years. He also corrected his main flaw - a lack of touchdowns - by scoring eight times in 2017, thanks to the emergence of Carson Wentz as an MVP-caliber quarterback.
The 27-year-old Ertz is entering his prime and is one of the few guaranteed assets at a position that lacks depth. Depending on your league, it will likely take a fifth-rounder to secure his services, but you can make that value up at the other positions, which are much deeper.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
More from this series
- Breakouts to target
- Busts to avoid
- Sleepers to steal
- Risky picks to gamble on
- Bounce-back candidates
- Super-deep sleepers
- Championship-winning players