Predicting the next Hall of Fame inductee for every AL team
Sometimes, when they ask what cap you'll wear into the Hall of Fame, the answer is easy. But not everybody's a one-team guy like Chipper Jones.
Vladimir Guerrero had a tough decision this week, given his iconic status with both the Montreal Expos and Los Angeles Angels. He ultimately chose to wear an Angels cap - a first for the franchise - despite playing more years in Montreal.
Guerrero's dilemma got us thinking about who might be the next candidate to represent each team in the Hall of Fame - and for some teams and players, the decision is not as easy as you might think. Today we'll run through our picks for each American League team; the NL will follow on Sunday.
Note: The number of "current inductees" for each team indicates how many players represent that team in the Hall; not how many inductees wore its uniform overall.
Baltimore Orioles
Current inductees: 6
Most recent: Cal Ripken Jr., 2007
Next likeliest inductee: Mike Mussina
Mussina's splits between the Orioles and Yankees - 47.6 bWAR in 10 years with Baltimore; 35.1 in eight years with New York - could easily justify choosing either team, or even going in without a logo. But his decade in Baltimore is likely to be the tiebreaker. Orioles fans better hope "Moose" picks them, because their next best hope is ... Manny Machado in 20 years? Maybe Adam Jones?
Boston Red Sox
Current inductees: 14
Most recent: Pedro Martinez, 2015
Next likeliest inductee: David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez's sinking candidacy and Dustin Pedroia still being active will make Big Papi the next Red Sox player to go in, and probably on his first ballot in 2022. And who knows, maybe Roger Clemens - who'd also wear a Red Sox hat - will go in alongside Ortiz. Start booking those hotel rooms now, New England.
Cleveland Indians
Current inductees: 15
Most recent: Jim Thome, 2018
Next likeliest inductee: Omar Vizquel
Vizquel's decent debut showing on this year's ballot (37 percent) indicates he's primed for a slow rise to eventual induction. Cleveland's only other realistic candidates would probably be either Kenny Lofton (ineligible until at least 2023) or Francisco Lindor (way too soon to know), so it's easy to assume Vizquel, who spent 11 of his 24 seasons with the Indians, is next up.
Chicago White Sox
Current inductees: 9
Most recent: Frank Thomas, 2014
Next likeliest inductee: Mark Buehrle
The odds of Buehrle making it to Cooperstown are slim - but then, so were the odds of a slop-throwing 40th-round draft pick becoming a five-time All-Star with two no-hitters and 14 straight seasons of 200-plus innings pitched on his resume. White Sox fans will still have to wait a while, since Buehrle's not eligible until 2021. His best hope will probably come on an Eras Committee ballot many years down the line.
Detroit Tigers
Current inductees: 13
Most recent: Jack Morris and Alan Trammell, 2018
Next likeliest inductee: Miguel Cabrera and/or Justin Verlander
Cabrera and Verlander are both entering their age-35 seasons, so the possibility exists that these longtime teammates could end up retiring in the same year, and then enter the Hall together on the first ballot five years later. Miggy started off in Florida and Verlander's now in Houston, but there's no question both will wear the Olde English D into Cooperstown. Lou Whitaker or Jim Leyland could theoretically beat them to the Hall via the Eras Committee, though Leyland could opt for a Pirates cap.
Houston Astros
Current inductees: 2
Most recent: Jeff Bagwell, 2017
Next likeliest inductee: Billy Wagner
Jose Altuve is well on his way, but his career is nowhere close to finished. Wagner, on the other hand, is on the ballot right now, and though he's started slow, the election of fellow closer Trevor Hoffman might give him a boost. If Wagner eventually makes it, he'll likely do so long before Altuve is even eligible - and he'd almost certainly go in wearing the Astros hat he donned for nine of his 16 seasons.
Kansas City Royals
Current inductees: 1
Most recent: George Brett, 1999
Next likeliest inductee: Carlos Beltran
Beltran spent seven years with both the Royals and Mets, with just 44 games played - 839 as a Met, 795 as a Royal - separating the teams. He was worth slightly more wins above replacement with New York, but is among the top 10 in all-time WAR for both franchises. There's really no wrong answer here, so we'll guess Beltran honors his original team and opts for the "KC." If Beltran chooses the Mets - or goes logo-less - it will be a longer wait for the Royals. Perhaps Salvador Perez or Eric Hosmer end up building stronger cases down the road.
Los Angeles Angels
Current inductees: 1
Most recent: Vladimir Guerrero, 2018
Next likeliest inductee: Mike Trout
Vlad finally broke the Angels' Cooperstown shutout, meaning Trout will have to settle for being second. Perhaps the Angels eventually retire No. 27 in honor of both their Hall of Famers.
Minnesota Twins
Current inductees: 4
Most recent: Bert Blyleven, 2011
Next likeliest inductee: Joe Mauer
Mauer, a native of the Twin Cities who might spend his entire career with his home team, was already on his way as an all-time great catcher before concussions forced him to first base. While Mauer probably won't be a first-ballot inductee, he's the easy call for Minnesota here following Johan Santana's one-and-done candidacy.
New York Yankees
Current inductees: 21
Most recent: Joe Torre, 2014
Next likeliest inductee: Mariano Rivera
Who were you expecting, Enrique Wilson? Next summer, Mo will become the 22nd Yankee to be enshrined.
Oakland Athletics
Current inductees: 4
Most recent: Rickey Henderson, 2009
Next likeliest inductee: Tim Hudson
If Mark McGwire ever gets in - and it's not likely at this point - he'll probably wear a Cardinals cap. Meanwhile, neither Jason Giambi nor Miguel Tejada have any hope of making it. That leaves Hudson, of "Moneyball" fame, as the next Athletic. While he did end up pitching more seasons in Atlanta, Hudson's best seasons came wearing green and gold, giving Oakland the edge once he hits the ballot in 2021.
Seattle Mariners
Current inductees: 1
Most recent: Ken Griffey Jr., 2016
Next likeliest inductee: Edgar Martinez
Twenty votes stood between Edgar and immortality on this year's ballot. In 2019, he should finally get over the hump and join longtime teammate Junior as the only Mariners in Cooperstown.
Tampa Bay Rays
Current inductees: 0
Most recent: None
Next likeliest inductee: Evan Longoria
It's not surprising that the 20-year-old (Devil) Rays don't have a Hall of Famer, given the franchise's youth. Their hopes all but hinge on Longoria - who just finished a decade-long run as the team's star - being inducted many years down the road. And Longo's not in bad shape, with a 45.5 JAWS score that already ranks 21st among third basemen, while he'd likely go in as a Ray regardless of his upcoming time in San Francisco. Meanwhile, David Price could be Tampa Bay's dark horse if he can rediscover his old form.
Texas Rangers
Current inductees: 2
Most recent: Ivan Rodriguez, 2017
Next likeliest inductee: Adrian Beltre
Though the still-active Beltre had some fine seasons in Los Angeles and Seattle, it was in a Rangers uniform that the fun-loving third baseman turned from a star into a future Hall of Famer, and the "T" on his plaque will reflect that.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current inductees: 1
Most recent: Roberto Alomar, 2011
Next likeliest inductee: Roy Halladay
Though his brief Phillies career was filled with memorable moments, "Doc" made it known on several occasions prior to his tragic death in November that he wanted to enter the Hall as a Blue Jay. Expect Halladay's wishes to be honored when he gets in, something that could happen as soon as next year.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)