Packers' playoff chances aren't as good as you think

Aaron Rodgers was cleared to return to action Tuesday, which has led many in the football community to believe the 7-6 Green Bay Packers will run the table over the final three weeks and reach the playoffs.

It's a popular opinion due to Rodgers' propensity for heroics - and considering Green Bay won its final six games last season to finish 10-6 and win the NFC North - but it's far more unlikely than most think.

Related: Rodgers says he isn't going to single-handedly save Packers with return

As things currently stand entering Week 15, the Packers have just a 7.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

As the ninth seed in the NFC - tied with the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys at 7-6 - Green Bay also has to vault the Atlanta Falcons, who are 8-5 and hold the sixth and final playoff spot, and the 8-5 Seattle Seahawks.

How can they do it?

For starters, the Packers must win their final three games. Seems simple enough, but their schedule wraps up with dates against fellow playoff hopefuls.

The first is road game against the 9-4 Carolina Panthers, followed by a Sunday night battle with the 10-3 Minnesota Vikings, and then finally an NFC North showdown against the rival Lions in Detroit .

Should the Packers pull out those contests, a three-game winning streak would give them a 93 percent chance at reaching the postseason.

That's all Green Bay can control. The rest is up to a host of other teams. So, what else has to happen?

In the absolute best-case scenario, the Vikings would not only lose to the Packers, but also their two other games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears. In that case, Minnesota and Green Bay would both finish 10-6, but the Pack would win the NFC North due to their superior division record.

That's the simplest and most cut-and-dry way for Green Bay to extend its playoff streak to a ninth season.

If the Vikings win just one more game the rest of the way, however, the Packers will need a combination of the following results:

Panthers lose one more game: Three NFC South teams are currently in contention for the two wild-card spots. The Packers need either the New Orleans Saints or Atlanta Falcons to win the division, leaving the Panthers as a wild-card contender.

If the Packers beat the Panthers on Sunday, that would be their only win against the three South division teams and give them a leg up over Carolina in the wild-card race. If both teams end the season at 10-6, the Packers would therefore own the tiebreaker.

Seahawks lose, preferably to the Rams: The 10-6 Packers would need the Seahawks to finish 10-6 or worse in order to leapfrog them in the standings. Green Bay owns the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of its 17-9 victory over Seattle in Week 1.

The hope from Wisconsin would be for Seattle to lose Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers' best path would be battling the Seahawks for a playoff spot instead of the Rams, who would have to lose twice and will finish their schedule against the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers.

Falcons lose two games, preferably to the Buccaneers and Saints: Only one NFC South team can win the division. In the event Atlanta is not that team, it would be a favorite for a wild-card berth.

In order for the Packers to overtake them, the Falcons would have to lose twice, ideally against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Saints over the next two weeks.

So, the Pack can land anywhere from No. 3 to No. 6 in the conference under these scenarios. But, for the second year in a row, their playoff hopes largely rest on their ability to run the table.