Signing Yu Darvish: Pros, cons, and predictions
In this five-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at Yu Darvish, a four-time All-Star who started last season with the Texas Rangers before helping the Los Angeles Dodgers get within one win of a World Series championship.
Pros and cons
Pro: Whiff master
Since entering the league in 2012 as a 25-year-old international free agent from Japan, Darvish has far exceeded expectations. Since that time, only two qualified starters have posted better strikeout rates: Max Scherzer and the late Jose Fernandez.
This past season, Darvish became the fastest pitcher ever to record the 1,000th strikeout of his career. He required 128 games to meet the mark, besting the incomparable Kerry Wood (134 games) along the way.
That's not even mentioning his lethal repertoire, which somehow includes eight pitches.
Pro: The price tag
The 31-year-old is the consensus best starter on the market, especially with Jake Arrieta coming off a down year, but his future employer may not have to break the bank the way teams have in previous offseasons. Also, because of the midseason trade from the Rangers to the Dodgers, Darvish isn't tied to any draft-pick compensation through a qualifying offer.
Since 2015, Scherzer, David Price, and Zack Greinke have all signed deals worth in excess of $200 million, yet Darvish is projected to get $160 million on the open market, according to MLB Trade Rumors. There have been no reports of him potentially landing a $200-million offer.
While roughly $25 million per year is by no means a bargain, there's a chance Darvish will provide surplus value on a deal in a way Price has struggled to since joining the Boston Red Sox on his megadeal.
Con: Not an ace
Of course, with the absence of a $200-million offer comes the fact that Darvish isn't an ace.
The most recent evidence came in the World Series. Darvish made two appearances for the Dodgers, including the pivotal Game 7, and recorded 10 outs between them while allowing a total of eight earned runs.
Next, there's the fact he's managed to hit the 200-inning plateau only once in his career. Coincidentally, he led the majors in strikeouts that year and finished second in Cy Young voting. If he can manage the workload, Darvish is unequivocally an ace, but he hasn't proven he can.
Finally, he's one full season removed from Tommy John surgery. This is becoming less of a red flag, as a growing number of pitchers have undergone the operation, but the specter of him losing a full year to injury remains.
Best fits
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been early fixtures in the rumor mill for Giancarlo Stanton, but their starting pitching appears to be a more glaring issue. As a team, they ranked ninth in the majors by WAR, which is certainly respectable. However, the potential loss of Lance Lynn through free agency could leave a gap in their rotation, even with their notable prospect depth.
Texas Rangers
Part of the Rangers' justification for trading Darvish for prospects at the deadline was the belief that they could reunite with the starter in a few months via free agency. Since then, however, it's been speculated that the Rangers aren't willing to pay Darvish's price tag, and could go after Alex Cobb instead.
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers ace Jimmy Nelson will be on the shelf with a shoulder injury to open the 2018 season. Looking to build off a surprising 2017 campaign, Milwaukee almost certainly can't afford to go the winter without signing a top pitcher. While Chase Anderson's breakout and the continued development of young starter Zach Davies are solid building blocks, adding a No. 1 starter could be the key to pushing the Brewers into the postseason.
Prediction
Darvish signs a seven-year, $170-million deal with the Brewers.
Check out the previous installments in this series:
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)