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Signing Lorenzo Cain: Pros, cons, and predictions

Duane Burleson / Getty Images Sport / Getty

In this five-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class, and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at Lorenzo Cain, a one-time All-Star who spent the last seven seasons with the Kansas City Royals.

Pros/cons

He is still, quietly, a near-elite player

If you're not exactly jazzed at the idea of your team signing Cain, consider that the only outfielders with more WAR over the last four seasons are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton. That’s crazy. Granted, he doesn't hit that many home runs (which is exceedingly rare these days), but Cain has nevertheless been more valuable since 2014 than guys like George Springer, Charlie Blackmon, and fellow free agent J.D. Martinez. And, more importantly, two of Cain's most valuable tools, speed and defense, don't appear to be in decline yet. Last year, Cain ran like the wind - by sprint speed, he was the 16th-fastest player in the majors - and continued, according to both UZR and DRS, to play plus defense. That, along with his .300 average and 15 homers (and career-best 8.4 percent walk rate), allowed him to accrue 4.1 WAR in 2017, more than Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger, and Andrew McCutchen.

His contract will be reasonable

Though he remains a very valuable player, and should continue to perform at a high level for at least a couple more seasons, Cain turns 32 not long after Opening Day. Given his age and profile, the likelihood of him landing an exorbitant, Jason Heyward-esque contract is small. The market has been known to make many a pundit look stupid, but it seems that Cain is primed to land a similar deal to the one Dexter Fowler got from the St. Louis Cardinals a year ago. Last winter, coming off a 4.6-WAR campaign, Fowler signed a five-year, $82.5-million contract a few months before his 31st birthday. Being one year older, Cain (who, like Fowler, is attached to draft-pick compensation), is probably in line for a four-year deal worth around $66 million. Even the Miami Marlins, financially beset as they are, would find that reasonable.

But his profile doesn't age well

As complete a player as he is, so much of Cain's value is derived from his speed, be it on the basepaths or in center field (or even for legging out infield hits; Cain had a higher ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio than 63 percent of qualified hitters last year). Prospective suitors should be wary, then, as speed tends to be one of the first things to go with age. In 2017, after all, only 15.2 percent of qualified players age 33 or older had a sprint speed faster than the league average. That's disconcerting, and doubly so given Cain's history of lower-body injuries. In 2016, Cain was limited to 103 games due to a left hamstring strain, and he missed time the season prior due to a bone bruise in his right knee.

Best fits

Seattle Mariners

  • If the Mariners seriously hope to snap their playoff drought in their current competitive window - the one supposedly propped open by the likes of Robinson Cano (35) and Nelson Cruz (37) - they can't afford to fill their massive hole in center field with a low-ceiling internal candidate. Given the lack of talent in their rotation, the Mariners are going to need to score a lot of runs to compete in 2018, and that means the abysmal 75 wRC+ their center fielders combined for a year ago just can't fly.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Cain began his career with the Brewers, who grabbed the toolsy teenager in the 17th round of 2004 draft, and a reunion makes a lot of sense now given the Brewers' position on the win curve. Last year, the Brewers finished within one game of a wild-card spot, and they're poised to bring back virtually all of the talent that nearly propelled them into the postseason in 2017 (along with, potentially, top prospects Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips). With a playoff spot in reach, the Brewers can't abide the .299 OBP Keon Broxton managed in 2017 - he was barely above replacement-level - and while they're not known for spending lavishly in free agency, a mid-market addition like Cain shouldn't be anathema to Milwaukee.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Unlike the two teams listed above, the Blue Jays probably wouldn't use Cain in center field - Kevin Pillar's bat wouldn't play anywhere else, after all - but a high-impact addition is exactly what Toronto needs if they're serious about contending for a playoff spot in Josh Donaldson's final year before free agency. And it's not like Cain doesn't have experience in right field. In 2016, he started 27 games in right, and having Cain flank Pillar in the outfield would actually make a lot of sense given the middling bat-missing ability of the Blue Jays' staff.

Prediction

Cain signs a four-year, $68-million deal with the Seattle Mariners.

Check out the previous installments in this five-part series:

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