Sunday Night Football betting preview: Falcons at Patriots
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Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 56.5)
Just another regular-season game? Try convincing the Atlanta Falcons, who have to blot out the stinging memory of the biggest one that got away when they visit the New England Patriots on Sunday night for a rematch of last season's Super Bowl. For those living in a cave, Atlanta led the Patriots by 25 points in the third quarter before losing in overtime.
Falcons coach Dan Quinn knows his team cannot be too preoccupied with exacting revenge, particularly since it has dropped its last two games - both at home and both to AFC East opponents - and blew a 17-point lead in last week's stunning 20-17 loss to Miami. "It's not anything that you need to use for motivation," Quinn told reporters. "You don't get to go replay it. Yeah, there's a part of that that's motivation, for sure, but it wasn't a driving force for us." New England coach Bill Belichick isn't one for sentiment and doesn't want the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history to be a topic of conversation - particularly when his team already has lost twice at home this season. “We’ve been given really highly strict rules that we are not allowed to talk about that game, so you’re not really going to get any information from anyone about that," tight end Rob Gronkowski told reporters.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-1.5) - Patriots (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -6
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point home faves and money started to come in on the Falcons pushing the line down as low as three at most books. The total hit the betting board 54 and that wasn’t high enough for bettors and has been bet up as high as 56.5. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: ‘This is most likely the game Atlanta will want the most this season. The problem, though, is the Falcons’ offense is down 10 PPG from last season which won’t frighten the Patriots pathetic defense. Should the Dirty Birds offense play back to last year’s level you can look for a well-lit scoreboard in this shoot-out.’ Covers Expert Marc Lawrence
WHAT BOOKS SAY:’Sharps hit the Falcons early so they haven't backed off from the initial position they had for the Super Bowl. Total has ballooned up as perception of these two teams remains offensive-driven and everyone remembers what happened last February. Squares could care less what’s happened this year, they’re only pulling from that amazing Super Bowl when lining up to bet this one.’ Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.
INJURY REPORT:
Falcons - WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Hamstring), K Matt Bryant (Probable, Back), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion), LB Vic Beasley (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Deion Jones (Questionable, Quadricep), DE Takkarist McKinley (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Duke Riley (Questionable, Knee), DT Courtney Upshaw (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jermaine Grace (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Jalen Collins (Eligible Week 12, Suspension), S Quincy Mauger (Questionable, Knee).
Patriots - WR Chris Hogan (Probable, Ribs), CB Stephen Gilmore (Questionable, Concussion), LB Elandon Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), OL Shaq Mason (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rex Burkhead (Questionable, Ribs), DB Eric Rowe (Questionable, Groin), LB Harvey Langi (Questionable, Back), LB Shea McClellin (Questionable Week 9, Undisclosed), OL Andrew Jelks (Questionable Week 10, Knee), OL Tony Garcia (Questionable Week 10, Illness), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable Week 11, Knee).
ABOUT THE FALCONS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Matt Ryan established career highs in passer rating (117.1) and yards (4,944) en route to winning NFL MVP honors last season, but he's thrown for as many interceptions as touchdowns (six) after tossing 38 scoring passes versus only seven picks a year ago. Quinn said there will be an emphasis on getting the ball into the hands of stud wideout Julio Jones, who has 25 receptions on the season but has yet to reach the end zone. Atlanta has a potent two-pronged backfield featuring Devonta Freeman (five TDs) and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 566 rushing yards through five games. Nose tackle Grady Jarrett notched three sacks in the Super Bowl but has yet to post one this season.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Tom Brady threw for 466 yards in the stirring Super Bowl comeback and has continued to air it out this season, leading the NFL with 1,959 yards while throwing for 13 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Brady will have the benefit of looking for Gronkowski, who missed the Super Bowl but has 26 receptions and four touchdowns in five games. Mike Gillislee has been the lead back for much of the season, but Dion Lewis had a season-high 11 carries and rushed for 52 yards and a score against the Jets. New England's defense still ranks last in the NFL with 440.7 yards allowed per game but has yielded a total of 31 points over the last two weeks.
TRENDS:
* Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 8-1 in Falcons last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
View full list of betting trends for this matchup here.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The Covers public is siding with the home chalk Patriots at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is picking up 65 percent of the totals action on Covers. View full consensus data here.