3 ways Rockies can upset D-Backs in WC game

Of all the National League teams to qualify for the postseason in 2017, regardless of Wednesday's results, none should feel more accomplished than the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

The division rivals are the only two teams that managed to rebound from a losing season the year prior, and completely turn it around. That's significant, but unfortunately, there has been little to no buzz entering this matchup.

For their part, the Rockies won 12 more games in 2017, finishing with their highest win total since 2009. Coincidentally, that season was the last time a Rockies team made the postseason. The Diamondbacks were even more impressive in 2017, combining to a 24-win increase compared to the previous year - the most by a team from Arizona since 2011.

Because of their regular-season dominance, Arizona enters the wild-card game as the favorites, but should they?

Here are three ways the Rockies can ultimately upset the Diamondbacks:

Gray must out-duel Greinke

One of the many factors behind the Diamondbacks' surge this season has to do with Zack Greinke. The 33-year-old returned to form, lowering his 2016 ERA and FIP from 4.37 to 3.20 and 4.12 to 3.31 in 32 starts, respectively.

His counterpart, Rockies starter Jon Gray, is nothing to scoff at, either. Despite missing almost all of June due to injury, Colorado's ace was magnificent down the stretch. The 25-year-old finished the season with the NL's fifth-best FIP (3.18) among starters with a minimum of 110 innings, and in September, pitched to a 2.57 ERA with 39 strikeouts in six starts.

He enters the game with no postseason experience, and after Tuesday's performance from fellow youngster Luis Severino, it remains to be seen if Gray can overcome postseason jitters. However, he's a great bet to do it.

Ride that bullpen

If the Yankees didn't make it obvious, a reliable bullpen is key to a team's success - especially if a starter falters early on.

In contrast to previous years, the Rockies have built a reputable bullpen, one that can preserve a victory. Colorado relievers ended 2016 combining to a league-worst 5.13 ERA, 1.9 WAR, and a 1.47 WHIP.

Combined bullpen numbers courtesy of FanGraphs

This year, the group jumped to the league's sixth-best WAR (6.4), lowering its ERA to 4.40 with a far better 3.94 FIP. A lot of that has to do with newcomers Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, along with the consistency of Chris Rusin and a far better - and healthy - Jake McGee.

Whether or not Gray struggles, the Rockies can count on this group on Wednesday night.

Bank on a prolific offense

No team in baseball benefits more playing at home than the Rockies. Players perform significantly better at Coors Field than they do on the road, and there's no doubting that.

Dig a little deeper, though, and the Rockies are more than capable of producing away from Coors, particularly in 2017.

Combined road numbers courtesy of Baseball Reference

It's worth noting that while a lot of the players listed performed better in Colorado, these combined road numbers aren't bad. Arenado specifically, upped his performance away from Coors this year going from .277/.340/.492 in 2016, to .283/.355/.531 in 2017.

In contrast, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mark Reynolds, to name the rest of the Rockies' regular lineup, fared off much worse away from Coors, which isn't too surprising.

Still, the Rockies can strike at any given moment. Arenado, Blackmon, Reynolds, and Story combined to hit 51 home runs on the road, and that's important, because no other team took Greinke deep more than the Rockies this season (six home runs allowed in five starts).

(Photos Courtesy: Action Images)