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Fantasy: Assessing the Patriots' backfield

Greg M. Cooper / USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick have long loved to torment fantasy football managers with secrecy, unpredictability, and constant alterations to their backfield pecking order.

The team has been unrivaled in its ability to make any one of three or four running backs into the fantasy star of a given week, while having that same one-week star disappear completely from the fantasy landscape the following Sunday.

The Patriots entered the 2017 season with four veteran and capable backs in Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and James White, after allowing 2016 rushing-touchdown leader LeGarrette Blount to leave in free agency.

Gillislee shone above the rest in Thursday's season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, scoring three red-zone touchdowns.

Here's how all four fared in Week 1.

Name Touches Ru.Yds Rec Yds TD
White 13 38 30 0
Gillislee 15 45 0 3
Burkhead 4 15 8 0
Lewis 2 9 0 0

A deeper look tells a slightly different story. Snap counts and grades courtesy Pro Football Focus.

Name Snaps Grade
White 43 63.9
Gillislee 24 49.0
Burkhead 10 64.0
Lewis 6 73.8

Gillislee's 3.0 yards per carry and minuscule involvement in the passing game - just five of his snaps were on passing plays - are cause for concern moving forward. While he scored the three short-yardage touchdowns, he was also stopped on fourth-down attempts.

Both White and Burkhead were much more effective between the 20-yard lines.

Gillislee and White each played on three blocking snaps, Burkhead just one, and Lewis on none.

Where to go from here

Sell high on Gillislee

Gillislee is the clear early favorite to replace Blount's role as the Patriots' workhorse in the red zone, and he's well on his way to matching or surpassing Blount's league-leading 18 touchdowns of last season.

But his first three touchdowns of the year came in a Patriots' loss, where quarterback Tom Brady threw for just 267 yards and no touchdowns. Brady and the passing game had multiple would-be touchdowns wiped away by defensive pass interference penalties, which would have negated the need for Gillislee's goal-line rushing attempts.

With Lewis injured for much of last season and White not having broken out yet, Blount was guaranteed a much larger share of the backfield workload. Gillislee's market share will be watered down by his three colleagues, and his red-zone opportunities will be dispersed to an inevitable uptick in the productivity of the passing game.

Sell his breakout game in a primetime matchup for someone with a steadier floor, albeit not quite as high of a weekly ceiling.

Targets: Ty Montgomery, Carlos Hyde, Marshawn Lynch

Stand by one guy

(Photos courtesy Action Images)

Here are the Yahoo! and NFL.com ownership percentages of each of the Patriots' backs.

Name Y! NFL.com
White 51% 78.5%
Gillislee 92% 94.4%
Burkhead 32% 6.4%
Lewis 14% 4.6%

With Gillislee looking like the star and White seeing the highest number of snaps in Week 1, both are living up to their respective draft pedigree as the highest owned of the four backs.

Owners with room to stash a running back for a few weeks should be taking a flier on either Burkhead or Lewis, in the event of an injury or a change to the depth chart.

Lewis had averaged 3.79 receptions per game over his first two seasons with the Patriots. He's still just 26 years old, and could quickly return to his old prominent role in the passing game.

Starting any of the four on a weekly basis will be a risky move for fantasy managers. No more than one should be rostered or started in a given week.

Pick your guy and hope Belichick pulls your card.

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