Sage Rosenfels column: Offensive challenges impacting the NFL's top teams
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
Every NFL team has weaknesses. Even the team that eventually wins the Super Bowl in Minneapolis this February will have positions on their football team that are worse than some non-playoff teams. The best franchises, the ones who go deep in the playoffs, overcome these weaknesses with talent at the other positions, combined with great teamwork and chemistry.
We are on the brink of the 2017 NFL season. Each of the top teams has a weakness that will affect their quarterback - or the concern may be the quarterback themselves. This is my breakdown of the issues affecting the pivots who play for the NFL’s top teams.
New England Patriots
I have the defending Super Bowl champions as the No. 1 team headed into this season. The Pats will have little competition in the AFC East to win the division - again. Through free agency, trades, and draft picks, New England has played the offseason game better than the majority of NFL teams.
One thing missing from the Patriots last year was a receiver with top-notch speed. Yes, Chris Hogan made a lot of deep plays, averaging almost 18 yards per catch, but he wasn’t a guy who scared the crap out of secondary coaches. Brandin Cooks, who the Patriots acquired via trade, is that type of player.
That move became even smarter when Julian Edelman went down during the preseason. Players like Edelman are more important than just statistics, even though his numbers last year were impressive. He ended the season leading the team with 98 catches for 1106 yards.
Tom Brady threw the ball in Edelman’s direction 159 times last year. The next targeted wide receiver on the team was Hogan, and he only had 58.
In the NFL, its rare to find receivers who never miss audibles or hot routes, know the job of every skill position on offense, get great separation, run precise routes, become running backs after the catch, and have great hands. Players like Edelman help a quarterback sleep well at night.
Who will step into Edelman's shoes? The obvious choice would be Danny Amendola. He has a similar skill set, but isn’t as explosive as Edelman. He also gets injured on a regular basis. The Patriots recently acquired Phillip Dorsett, a first rounder in 2015, who had 33 catches last season.
The competition in the Patriots' wide receiver room to see who becomes “the guy” should be a good one. There is still plenty of talent at this position, but it’s hard to replace a player like Edelman. More than likely, it will be a group effort, which may result in some growing pains early in the season.
Atlanta Falcons
Though I believe both the Cowboys and Giants are better all-around football teams than the Falcons, coming within a few plays of winning the Super Bowl earns them my respect and a spot at No. 2 on my list.
The biggest concern for the Falcons is their defense. Head coach Dan Quinn uses the same fundamentally sound scheme as the Seattle Seahawks, but he doesn’t yet have the same defensive talent as Seattle.
There isn’t much about the defense that reigning MVP Matt Ryan can do, and he'll have a full plate this year, anyway. Ryan is getting another new offensive coordinator after Kyle Shanahan left to be the 49ers' head coach. Quinn hired Steve Sarkisian away from Alabama not long after Shanahan departed.
Sarkisian is a respected offensive mind, but he has spent only one season in the NFL as quarterbacks coach for the Raiders in 2004. The NFL game is more advanced than college football; it’s like comparing trigonometry to algebra. I believe the jump from college to NFL is substantial.
Even if the Falcons hired a long-time NFL coach, the transition to new coordinators is always a challenge. Add in the fact that Shanahan and Ryan seemed to be on the exact same page, this change may be harder than most.
Ryan still has a lot of weapons from last year and will run a similar system. But the play calling and voice behind that system is very much untested.
New York Giants
Quietly, the Giants had the fifth-best regular season record in the NFL last year at 11-5. Their defense is one of the league’s best, and they are loaded with talented receivers for Eli Manning to throw the ball to. The big issues here are their offensive line and running game, and which Manning we see this year.
The G-Men finished 29th in rushing last year. When Eli won both of his Super Bowls, the Giants had one of the best offensive lines and running games in the NFL. Eli’s game isn’t quite like brother Peyton’s. The older Manning could take over a game, or a season, by throwing the ball the majority of the time.
Eli’s success is much more contingent on having a strong running game. He is one of the best play-action quarterbacks in the NFL - but those types of plays don’t work well when it’s third-and-8.
During games when the Giants struggled to run it, the offensive line was exposed in the passing game. Left tackle Ereck Flowers’ limitations are well documented.
Even though he has won two Super Bowls, there are questions about Manning, as well. He is nearing the end of his career and his body has taken thousands of hits. Though he hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season, and his stats have been consistently solid since Ben McAdoo started calling plays, quarterbacks seem to hit the wall as their careers wind down. Is this the year it happens to Manning?
Even though Eli has the most talented receiving corps of his career (including rookie tight end Evan Engram), his lack of an offensive line and running game is a major concern. No matter how many weapons an NFL quarterback has, none want to throw the ball 50 times a game, especially when you are playing in your late-30s.
Dallas Cowboys
I have the Giants ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East this year. I believe Dallas will be in the playoffs, but it isn't as talented a team this year thanks to players leaving in free agency and a myriad of suspensions.
Dak Prescott was remarkable in 2016. Throwing 23 touchdowns against only four interceptions would be phenomenal for a former MVP, much less a fourth-round rookie. But Prescott will have to throw more than 23 touchdowns if the Cowboys want to repeat as NFC East champions.
Dallas is weaker in the secondary this year, a potential problem when playing twice against Manning, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz this season. It also lost dependable offensive lineman Ronald Leary to free agency.
But no loss could be greater than possibly being without running back Ezekiel Elliott for the first six games. Elliot has already shown himself to be an elite running back, even though an average one could rush for 1,000 yards behind this Dallas offensive line.
However, Elliot turns four-yard gains into six-yard runs, and when that line gets him to the second level, he has the ability to make the safeties miss and outrun the pursuit. He is a special back and Prescott will miss him if his suspension stands.
The running game is a quarterback’s best friend. When you are under center, there is a big difference between second-and-4 versus second-and-7. Elliot is that difference maker for the Cowboys.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Though he flirted with retirement in the days following the Steelers' loss to the Patriots in the AFC title game, it wasn’t a surprise when Ben Roethlisberger announced he would come back for 2017. The Steelers have the best combination of running back, receiver, and quarterback in the NFL. Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are rare talents for a quarterback to walk away from.
My concern with Pittsburgh is their tight end position, depth at receiver, and Big Ben’s health.
Last year, Steelers tight ends Jesse James, Ladarius Green, and Xavier Grimble combined for 68 catches. During the last four years of his career, former Steelers tight end Heath Miller averaged 64 catches by himself. Big Ben loves throwing to his tight end, and the Steelers don’t have one that scares defenses.
Brown is a stud. Martavis Bryant is really talented as well. But who does Pittsburgh have behind them if they get hurt (or suspended)? Not much. Luckily, the Steelers always somehow find great wide receivers who come out of nowhere and become household names. But, I doubt Darrius Heyward-Bey and Eli Rogers will surprise anybody this year.
Lastly, Ben has been hit and beat up more than any quarterback currently playing in the NFL. He has missed dozens of games in his career, and played dozens more hobbled. His health is going to a major factor if the Steelers want to dethrone the Patriots in the NFC.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s version of Superman. I call him the Video Game Quarterback because some of the throws he completes only happen on your PlayStation 4.
The Packers are weaker at guard this year. They signed Jahri Evans this offseason, but he isn’t an equal replacement for T.J. Lang and JC Tretter.
Though I love Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, neither player scares teams who have good man-to-man corners, such as the Minnesota Vikings.
Ty Montgomery was one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last year, and helped solve the Packers’ running back issues. As a receiver who moved to running back, my concern is: Can Montgomery carry the load for 16 regular season games plus the playoffs?
Seattle Seahawks
Offensive line. Offensive line. Offensive line.
The rest of the team is really, really good.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are loaded, too. A top-five defense. Weapons all over the field on offense. One of the best head coaches in football. KC will be in the hunt as we get closer to January.
The big question is Alex Smith. He wins a lot of games, and executes Reid’s offense just like it was drawn up in the playbook. He limits mistakes, keeps his team close, and finds a way to win in the fourth quarter.
To win a Super Bowl, more often than not, the quarterback has to make a few throws during the playoffs that are memorable. The other top-ranked teams have quarterbacks who can, or have, made those throws. Smith has not.
With first-rounder Patrick Mahomes II waiting behind Smith, the quarterback position is going to be the difference between this Chiefs team just making the playoffs or bringing home postseason hardware.
Oakland Raiders
It’s amazing what Reggie McKenzie has done to this team since becoming general manager in 2012. He has drafted well, added the right players in free agency, and transformed this team into a contender.
The majority of the Raiders' concerns are on defense. This means quarterback Derek Carr will have to score a lot of points on offense if they want to challenge New England, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City.
Offensively, they are loaded. The offensive line is massive. The receivers group is one of the NFL’s best. They added Jared Cook to improve their tight end position. They pulled Beast Mode, a.k.a. Marshawn Lynch, out of retirement to take handoffs from Carr, who has already exceeded everyone’s expectations.
This team is on the rise. If they falter, it will be because of its defense - or another injury to its star quarterback.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)