Early-Season Stolen Base Trends: Jose Altuve Up, Manny Machado Way Down
To little surprise, Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve leads the MLB in stolen bases through little over one month of play. His 10 steals have set a lofty pace, even by his own high standards. Fantasy owners are likely surprised by most of the next nine names behind Altuve among the stolen base leaders (Miami Marlins 2B Dee Gordon excluded).
Alternatively, several players who were drafted and relied on for their stolen base potential have remained relatively stationary on the basepaths.
Here's a look at 10 players who have either outperformed or underperformed expectations on the basepaths this year, along with a prediction for what the rest of their season may include:
Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve
Trending: ▲
It's not surprising to see Altuve atop the stolen-base leaderboard, but his tally to date is even more impressive considering his power surge. His 10 steals are complimented with eight home runs through Wednesday, May 4. His 10 successful steals have come on just 11 attempts, as he looks to cut down on a career-high 13 times caught stealing in 2015.
Owners can expect a slight decline in his torrid steal pace as April of last season was a single-month high. His three steals on just five attempts in September and October (of the regular season) were his lowest of any month. Once his home-run pace declines and he ends up on first or second base more often, he should have more opportunities to steal.
Projection: 62 stolen bases
Houston Astros OF George Springer
Trending: ▼
Springer has just one successful steal on five attempts, with his four times caught stealing already matching last year's number on 20 total attempts. He has had his opportunities, as his batting average and on-base percentage are similar to last year.
SS Carlos Correa's struggles could be to blame for some of the failed attempts. Correa's swing percentage and contact percentage are down from last season. The Astros are likely attempting some hit-and-runs but Correa hasn't held up his end, resulting in fewer successful steals for Springer.
Some double steal attempts with Altuve could also be hurting Springer, as defenses opt for the slightly slower outfielder while giving up the base to Houston's second baseman.
Projection: 12
Washington Nationals OF Bryce Harper
Trending: ▲
The Nationals' stolen base leader is one back of last season's total of six. Harper's success rate has improved from last season, as his five steals have come on seven attempts, compared to 2015's 6-for-10 showing.
He stole 18 bases in his rookie season, so the precedent is there, but that was during a 22-home-run campaign, and not with the 60-plus home runs he's on pace for in 2016. The frightening part is his low .238 BABIP, which is resulting in fewer singles and doubles than he should have.
Fewer home runs, more walks, and more singles will provide him with more opportunities, and he seems committed to using them.
Projection: 27
Washington Nationals 2B Anthony Rendon
Trending: ▼
Expected to return to his 2014 form of 17 stolen bases, Rendon has disappointed on the basepaths thus far, with just one steal on two attempts. While it's partly his own fault - due largely to his .231 average and .297 OBP - a significant part of the blame can be placed on Harper.
Rendon is less inclined and asked less often to steal when he's hitting in front of Harper and his .649 slugging percentage. The risk of being caught doesn't outweigh the reward of moving up a base, as any hit from Harper is likely to clear the bases at his current rate. As Rendon's BABIP rises and Harper potentially returns to a more human form, his opportunities will increase.
Projection: 10
Milwaukee Brewers 3B/SS Jonathan Villar
Trending: ▲
A former utility man and a part-time player with the Astros, Villar is taking full advantage of everyday playing time with the Brewers in 2016. Playing under a one-year, $512,900 contract, he has the incentive to pad his stats, and he has every opportunity to do so while playing for a team already 9 1/2 games back of the NL Central lead.
Villar's former career high of 18 steals in 2013 with Houston came in just 241 plate appearances. He has four 30-steal seasons in minor league campaigns spanning no more than 420 plate appearances. With everyday playing time essentially guaranteed, Villar should continue running toward a bigger contract for 2017 and beyond, as he heads into arbitration.
Projection: 27
Chicago Cubs OF Dexter Fowler
Trending: ▲
Fowler has never approached the career-high 27 steals he recorded during his rookie season in 2009 while with the Colorado Rockies. It took him until last year to have just his second 20-steal season. Those came on 27 attempts, showing the modest efficiency he's shown his entire career.
His five steals thus far have come on just five attempts. Those attempts are the result of a career-high .348 average and .470 OBP. Both numbers are the result of a .426 BABIP which is over 80 points higher than his career rate. Cubs manager Joe Maddon will continue to encourage him to steal, but he may soon have fewer opportunities.
Projection: 17
Baltimore Orioles 3B Manny Machado
Trending: ▼
Coming off a 20-steal season in 2015, Machado was looked at as one of the surest bets for a 20/20 campaign in 2016. While his seven home runs thus far have him well on pace in that respect, he has yet to successfully steal a base on just two attempts.
His .679 SLG% is the main culprit, as he's giving himself fewer opportunities to steal. Altuve is the only player in the league with a slugging percentage over .600 and more than two stolen bases. Machado didn't steal more than four bases in any single month last season, so a dramatic surge shouldn't be expected.
The Orioles lead the American League in team slugging percentage, showing no need to manufacture their runs.
Projection: 7
Pittsburgh Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen
Trending: ▼
McCutchen's stolen-base pace is trending down for the third consecutive season, after stealing 27 in 2013. Owners shouldn't panic, as he didn't steal last April, with just one unsuccessful attempt in the month.
He still finished with double-digit SBs, last season, but he can no longer be expected to provide an elite return in the category.
Projection: 10
Kansas City Royals OF Lorenzo Cain
Trending: ▼
Cain's power was expected to decline in 2016, following a career-high 16 home runs in 2015, but he was still expected to return elite stolen base numbers. He has three successes on five attempts thus far, after being caught a total of 17 times over his past three full seasons.
As he returns to hitting singles and doubles instead of home runs, he'll have the opportunities. Owners shouldn't be too concerned with his lack of success thus far.
Projection: 22
Pittsburgh Pirates 2B/3B/OF Josh Harrison
Trending: ▲
As part of a regression-filled season in 2015, Harrison stole just 10 bases, after swiping a career-high 18 in 2014. He has five already this season, without being caught once. His batting average and OBP have returned to his 2014 levels, resulting in more regular playing time than at the end of last year.
He's hitting in the bottom-third of the Pirates lineup, giving him free reign on the basepaths.
Projection: 21