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CFB Week 12 big games: TCU lives, searching for Pac-12 survivors

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Sometimes, the best bet is the one you don't make. There wasn't enough interest in undefeated TCU to pull Texas down under a touchdown, so we passed on the game. That was for the best since TCU won outright, and it was a miserable game to have to watch with focus. That shouldn't be the case for a trio of interesting matchups this week, but then again, we thought TCU-Texas was going to be an explosive offensive affair.

No. 4 TCU @ Baylor (+3, 57.5)

Here we go again. TCU gets yet another road test. The Horned Frogs clinched their place in the Big 12 championship game, and those of us holding a conference title ticket can breathe a sigh of relief. Now they've wedged their way into College Football Playoff position as tests continue to pile up for them. This will mark their ninth straight week in action and the first and only time they're playing back-to-back road games.

TCU got out of Austin victorious despite gaining just 283 yards on offense and 3.93 yards per play, taking advantage of one big breakdown in coverage for a 31-yard touchdown and Kendre Miller breaking a 75-yard scoring run. Remove those two plays, and the rest of the game largely featured the Longhorns pushing the TCU offensive line into the backfield.

Baylor got blown out at home last week by Kansas State, so it's understandable if you are looking to sell the Bears. But I'm buying a bounce-back effort in their final home game of the season - in part because of how excusable a loss to the Wildcats is when they're healthy. Max Duggan missed last year's matchup with Baylor, so it's been two years since he last faced Dave Aranda's defense.

The teams atop the Big 12 each year aren't as good as those in the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten. But like the Pac-12, the real issue for why they tend to miss the CFP is the gauntlet of the schedule. There are no off weeks in the Big 12, and TCU may be vulnerable against a Baylor squad capable of playing spoiler.

Line outlook: Bet at Baylor +3

No. 7 USC @ No. 16 UCLA (+2.5, 75.5)

Speaking of bets we've already made, Caleb Williams racked up five touchdowns in a blowout, but somehow his odds to win the Heisman Trophy lengthened to 12-1. Your head will hurt if you try to make sense of that since oddsmakers seem impressed when CJ Stroud does that between mediocre performances. We bring this up because the crosstown rivalry will be on Williams' shoulders with the injury to star tailback Travis Dye.

With a total in the high-70s, the expectation is for a shootout between USC and UCLA, with both Williams and Dorian Thompson-Robinson going up and down the field. The difference-maker is Bruins tailback Zach Charbonnet's ability to control the game against a Trojans run defense that gives up 141 rushing yards per game against far inferior competition.

As per Pac-12 tradition of annually cannibalizing itself, UCLA got caught potentially looking ahead to this game with its loss to Arizona, but that doesn't make it any less likely that the Bruins win this game, and it may have created a little value in a contest that's closer to a coin flip.

With Dye out, if Williams can win this game at the Rose Bowl, there should be a big shift toward him in the Heisman market, which is a great backup plan if the Bruins succumb to USC.

Line outlook: UCLA +2.5

No. 10 Utah @ No. 12 Oregon (-3, 61.5)

Speaking of the Pac-12 being self-destructive, Oregon got clipped by Washington in a shootout last week, which also might be creating a little value with Utah coming to town. Admittedly, the Utes owned the Ducks in both matchups last season, dominating them in Salt Lake City and in Las Vegas, but this one's at Autzen Stadium.

Dan Lanning and Bo Nix weren't around for that, though, and the talented defenders that went from Utah to the NFL won't be a part of this matchup, either. You can talk yourself into Utah's toughness overwhelming the Ducks again, but in the Utes' three previous high-profile games this season, they gave up 450 yards to Florida and 42 points on over 500 yards to both USC and UCLA - two similarly high-octane offenses to Oregon.

Line outlook: Oregon -3

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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