Which CFB teams have least returning production in 2021?
We examined the college football teams with the most returning production Thursday. This time, we consider the teams with the most roster turnover - often a sign for any savvy bettor to fade them early in the year, if not for the entire season.
Twenty of the 25 teams with the least returning production last year posted worse records in 2020 than they did in 2019, and five failed to win a game. No team fell off worse than defending champion LSU - which followed up a 15-0 campaign with a 5-5 record thanks to the fourth-lowest returning production of any roster. The likes of Michigan (sixth-lowest), Michigan State (14th), Baylor (23rd), and Syracuse (25th) also combined to finish 7-26 amid heavy roster turnover.
Below are the 25 rosters with the least returning production in 2021 as of July 6, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly, along with each team's win total courtesy of theScore Bet. With these factors in mind, here are five teams to potentially fade this season:
Least returning production in 2021
| TEAM | RETURNING | WIN TOTAL |
|---|---|---|
| BYU | 35% | 6.5 |
| Northwestern | 39% | 6.5 |
| Ohio State | 51% | 11 |
| Notre Dame | 55% | 8.5 |
| Alabama | 56% | 11.5 |
| Stanford | 57% | 4.5 |
| Florida | 57% | 8.5 |
| Duke | 57% | 3.5 |
| South Carolina | 58% | 3.5 |
| Texas | 59% | 7.5 |
| Navy | 59% | 3.5 |
| Tennessee | 60% | 6.5 |
| Georgia Southern | 62% | 4.5 |
| Western Kentucky | 62% | 5.5 |
| Air Force | 63% | 6.5 |
| Kentucky | 63% | 7 |
| Louisville | 64% | 6.5 |
| Georgia | 65% | 10.5 |
| Texas A&M | 65% | 9.5 |
| Buffalo | 65% | 7.5 |
| Temple | 65% | 2.5 |
| Kansas | 67% | 1.5 |
| Massachusetts | 67% | 1.5 |
| Clemson | 68% | 11.5 |
| West Virginia | 68% | 6.5 |
Northwestern (39%, 6.5 wins)
Northwestern enjoyed its best campaign in head coach Pat Fitzgerald's 15-year tenure last season, finishing 7-2 with a No. 10 ranking in the AP Poll after trouncing Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. But the Wildcats will have a tough time getting back to seven wins in 2021; Northwestern is one of just two programs returning less than half its production and should face a tougher Big Ten schedule this time around.
Notre Dame (55%, 8.5 wins)
All four of last season's playoff finalists rank among the 25 worst teams in returning production, but Notre Dame faces the most daunting path back to contention. The Fighting Irish must replace nine players selected in this year's NFL draft - including three-year starting quarterback Ian Book - while transfer QB Jack Coan lines up behind an offensive line replacing four starters.
Tennessee (60%, 6.5 wins)
Tennessee has won at least seven games just once in the last four seasons. The Volunteers will struggle to surpass this mark in 2021 after leading all Power 5 programs in outgoing transfers - including leading passer Jarrett Guarantano. They'll also play under their fourth head coach since 2017 in Josh Heupel, who went 6-4 in his final season with UCF.
Texas A&M (65%, 9.5 wins)
The last time Texas A&M won at least nine games in consecutive seasons was 2012-13. Head coach Jimbo Fisher faces an uphill battle to build on last year's 9-1 record after losing four-year starting QB Kellen Mond and four starters up front. The Aggies will start a freshman or sophomore under center, so a shaky offensive line could derail their plans for a 10-win season.
Massachusetts (67%, 1.5 wins)
Maybe turning over the entire roster is a good thing for a group that went winless last year. Still, Massachusetts has won one game or none in four of nine seasons since transitioning to FBS. Securing a pair of victories after just one win in the program's last 17 games is likely too much to ask of this inexperienced group.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.