SEC win totals: Missouri will crush light schedule
Alabama is the SEC win total leader for the 2021 season. Go figure.
But as we preview the SEC, we'll skip the reigning champs and instead find our value elsewhere.
Here are my four best bets.
2021 SEC win totals
| Team | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Georgia | 10.5 | -105 | -125 |
| Texas A&M | 9.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Florida | 9 | -140 | +110 |
| LSU | 8.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Ole Miss | 7.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Missouri | 7 | -125 | -105 |
| Auburn | 7 | +110 | -140 |
| Kentucky | 6.5 | -200 | +150 |
| Tennessee | 6 | +110 | -140 |
| Mississippi State | 5.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Arkansas | 5.5 | +110 | -140 |
| South Carolina | 4 | +120 | -155 |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | -115 | -115 |
Over
Missouri
Missouri couldn't really get going in 2020.
The program drew three top-25 opponents to start, including eventual champion Alabama out of the gates. The Tigers were outmatched in most of their 2020 games, with the team playing half its schedule against ranked opponents.
This season's schedule is welcomed with open arms.
Mizzou clashes with Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri State, and North Texas as part of its nonconference slate, and the school could be a pick 'em or favorite in its first six games. In SEC play, the Tigers host Texas A&M and Florida, and they bypass Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss.
There are at least seven wins on their ledger.
Georgia
Head coach Kirby Smart is still looking to claim his first national title at Georgia, but he hasn't struggled to pile up wins.
The Bulldogs averaged 12 victories per year under Smart between 2017 and 2019 before taking 80% of their 2020 contests. If their offense can continue where it left off, this total isn't a sweat.
Quarterback JT Daniels took the reins down the stretch and didn't look back. Georgia posted 37.3 points per game during Daniels' four starts to close out the year after averaging 29 over the first six weeks.
Now Georgia is lethal on both sides of the ball with five-star tight end and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert in the fold. He joins an offense returning 84% of last season's production.
Under
Ole Miss
It's easy to get excited about Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin is charismatic, the team's offense puts up points, and the program is typically a thorn in the side of Alabama in the conference.
But the market is wrong with this number.
The Rebels were a loss to Indiana's backup quarterback in the Outback Bowl away from going 4-6 in 2020. They didn't win a game over a ranked opponent, and their four conference victories came against teams that went a combined 11-30.
Quarterback Matt Corral is a Heisman sleeper for some, but I'm not buying that either. The Rebels have fielded various star pass-catchers recently, like AJ Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Elijah Moore. But there isn't a true No. 1 to step into Moore's role from last year, while the loss of tight end Kenny Yeboah - the team's second-leading receiver behind Moore in 2020 - will also prove costly.
To top it off, Ole Miss plays the country's ninth-toughest schedule, which includes out-of-conference dates with Louisville and Liberty.
Auburn
Auburn could use a big year to get back on the map, but that's an uphill battle.
The Tigers were underwhelming in 2020 during Bo Nix's second campaign under center. Now the program is gearing up for 2021 under a new coaching staff, and with the offense missing its top-three receivers from this past season.
Auburn plays the nation's second-toughest schedule, behind only Arkansas. Don't expect the school to contend for anything this fall.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.