CFB Week 8 best bets: Fade Texas' offense vs. Baylor
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
We're back under .500 for the first time since Week 3, but this upcoming slate is loaded.
Here are the best bets for this weekend:
Oklahoma @ TCU (+7, 59.5), 12:00 p.m. ET
Is it time for Oklahoma overs to turn into unders? The Sooners have cashed three straight against FBS competition, but the streak should end here.
Oklahoma and TCU have both been average pushing the ball down the field and currently rank outside the top 50 in yards per completion. The Horned Frogs are also running the ball on roughly 53% of their offensive snaps, so don't expect head coach Gary Patterson to engage in a shootout.
TCU has hit six straight unders coming off a bye week, while Oklahoma is 5-2 to the under the last seven as a road favorite.
Pick: Under 59.5
Rutgers @ Michigan State (-13, 44.5), 12 p.m.
This is an ugly play, but the over has appeal in this matchup.
Michigan State wants to run the ball under new head coach Mel Tucker, and it probably can against a small Rutgers interior. When the Scarlet Knights have the ball, they'll likely be more volatile than efficient. Still, there's enough juice in the skill corps for a couple of home-run plays.
This number's certainly low enough to take a stab.
Pick: Over 44.5
Baylor at Texas (-9, 61), 3:30 p.m.
This is Dave Aranda's second straight year playing Texas' offense; Baylor's first-year head coach got a good look at the Longhorns as LSU's defensive coordinator last season. Though the Tigers emerged from that contest with a 45-38 win, a big-play Texas offense gave Aranda trouble. Will his defense perform better this time around?
The Longhorns have gone over the total in every game this season, but the schedule has played a big part in that: Texas Tech, UTEP, Oklahoma, and even TCU - to an extent - are "over" teams. Baylor is not.
The Bears don't want to fall off track and wind up in a shootout. They run at a moderate pace (70.2 plays per game) and have been stout defensively, currently sitting tied for fourth nationally in yards per play allowed (4.1).
Texas, meanwhile, isn't as explosive as the numbers suggest. The Longhorns have hung some gaudy numbers, but they aren't a quick-strike unit. Put them up against a formidable Big 12 defense, and their scoring will inevitably take a dip.
Don't be surprised if Texas struggles to find its footing.
Pick: Texas team total under 35.5
Houston @ Navy (+15, 55), 3:30 p.m.
This matchup is just too enticing at such a short price.
Houston has passed just about every test it's faced this year. The Cougars blew out Tulane in an opener they dominated more than the box score showed, then they hung with BYU for three-plus quarters last Friday.
This is simply a huge talent disparity for a Navy squad that's been all over the place this season. If the Cougars want to play in this game, they can name the score.
Pick: Houston -15
West Virginia @ Texas Tech (+3.5, 54), 5:30 p.m.
What has Texas Tech done to warrant this type of spread? It's a legitimate question.
The Red Raiders were one of the unluckiest teams in the country last season. So far, the luck hasn't balanced out: They're 1-3 both straight up and against the spread and, frankly, haven't been close in any of their losses.
Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite, couldn't hang with a so-so Kansas State squad, and mustered 270 yards of offense in last week's loss to Iowa State.
West Virginia, meanwhile, currently leads the nation in yards per play allowed (3.8), and its stout front seven should wreak havoc on Texas Tech's Air Raid offense. The Red Raiders are a good play when they can score at will, but a total of 54 suggests a low-scoring clash, and that favors the road team.
Bet the Mountaineers, who are 3-0-1 ATS the last four as favorites.
Pick: West Virginia -3.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
2020 best bets record: 10-11
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.