CFB Week 5 upset alert: Watch out for Missouri
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BYU didn't take kindly to being placed on upset alert last week. The program put on a clinic against Troy en route to a 48-7 victory.
If there's any blessing in disguise, it's that we don't have to be perfect every week. While the break-even threshold in betting is 52.3% if you're playing standard -110 prices, all it takes is a couple wins on a few longshot 'dogs to make it worth your while.
We started the season with a pair of wins on Georgia Tech (+12.5 vs. Florida State) and Boston College (+6 vs. Duke) before taking our first loss of the season last week on BYU. Here's to hoping we get back on track.
This is how the board is shaping up ahead of Week 5.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech @ BYU | BYU -24 |
| Missouri @ Tennessee | Tennessee -12 |
| Baylor @ West Virginia | Baylor -3 |
| TCU @ Texas | Texas -11.5 |
| South Carolina @ Florida | Florida -17.5 |
| East Carolina @ Georgia State | GSU -2 |
| NC State @ Pitt | Pitt -14 |
| Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina | Ark. St -3 |
| UTSA @ UAB | UAB -20.5 |
| UNC @ Boston College | UNC -14 |
| Texas Tech @ Kansas State | KSU -2.5 |
| Memphis @ SMU | Memphis -2.5 |
| Texas A&M @ Alabama | Alabama -18 |
| South Florida @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati -22 |
| Oklahoma State @ Kansas | OSU -21.5 |
| Ole Miss @ Kentucky | Kentucky -6.5 |
| Virginia Tech @ Duke | VT -10.5 |
| Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic | FAU -6.5 |
| Western Kentucky @ MTSU | WKU -7 |
| Navy @ Air Force | Navy -7 |
| Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe | GSU -2 |
| Arkansas @ Mississippi State | MSST -17 |
| LSU @ Vanderbilt | LSU -21 |
| Southern Miss @ North Texas | North Texas -1.5 |
| Tulsa @ Central Florida | UCF -21.5 |
| Oklahoma @ Iowa State | OU -7 |
| Auburn @ Georgia | Georgia -6.5 |
| Virginia @ Clemson | Clemson -28 |
| Troy @ South Alabama | Troy -5.5 |
These teams are safe
Virginia Tech toyed with NC State despite missing 23 players to COVID-19. Expect a demolition against a Duke squad that's having a tough time putting points on the board through three games.
Oklahoma is in a hangover spot after losing to Kansas State for the second consecutive year. Still, does Iowa State have enough talent at wide receiver to match points with the Sooners? It might take a while for OU to get up, but there's still a significant talent disparity in this one.
Upset alert: Tennessee (-12 vs. Missouri)
I'm not surprised the public's latched onto Tennessee. The program won its final six games in 2019, capped off by a bowl win over Indiana. However, this price is too steep to play.
The Volunteers were only favored in conference play once in 2019 - they were -24 over lowly Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale. Last week, Tennessee closed as a seven-point favorite over an inferior opponent in South Carolina and couldn’t even cover in a 31-27 win. The Vols out-gained the Gamecocks by just 15 yards and were aided by a pair of turnovers in the win.
Tennessee's -12 spread versus Missouri simply feels unwarranted.
First-year Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz received a warm welcome to the SEC last week against Alabama. The Tigers didn't belong on the same field against a potent offense that could have named the score. But, this is a much better matchup against a Tennessee squad that prefers to play lower-scoring games.
The Volunteers haven't fared particularly well for bettors of late. They're 7-17 against the spread the last 24 at home, 2-6 ATS the last eight as home favorites, and 1-7 ATS the last eight against teams with losing records.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.