Texas win total preview: Breakthrough looming for Longhorns
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It's just a matter of when - not if - the Texas Longhorns can supplant the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12.
Head coach Tom Herman hasn't gotten off to the start the fan base hoped for. After posting a 22-4 record in two seasons at Houston, he's 25-15 in his first three campaigns with the Longhorns. Texas has suffered at least four losses in every campaign under Herman, who's yet to maneuver past the program's archrival for the top spot in the conference.
However, there's a breakthrough looming in Austin. The only question is if we'll see it in 2020, or if we'll have to wait another year for Texas to officially be back.
Let's evaluate the Longhorns' win total of 9.5, courtesy of theScore Bet.
Texas - Over/Under 9.5 wins
Over: -110
Under: -110
A look back
Texas was pretty fortunate in 2019, according to second-order wins. Though the Longhorns finished the year 8-5, they performed like a 7.3-win team. Texas split its six one-score games and went plus-five in the turnover margin.
Depth really set the program back last season. Not only were the Longhorns extremely young - they were No. 121 in the country in returning production entering the year - they also suffered a laundry list of injuries.
Returning production
Alright, now we're getting somewhere.
Of all the teams with realistic chances to win the title in 2020, Texas is arguably in the best shape here. The Longhorns are No. 21 nationally, bringing back 82% of the defense (No. 14) and 66% (No. 62) of the offense.
An injury-riddled defense will be extremely revamped in 2020. Texas will have one of the most athletic units in the country. The offense might be lagging behind in terms of experience, but it has the most important part of the equation: quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
The Austin native has two-plus years of starting experience and has the sixth-best odds to win the Heisman. His dual-threat abilities already make him a nightmare to game plan for. Now, he and the offense will operate under new coordinator Mike Yurcich, who's had his fingerprints on some of the more efficient units over the last half-decade.
Good luck with that.
Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | vs. South Florida |
| 2 | @ LSU |
| 3 | vs. UTEP |
| 4 | Bye |
| 5 | @ Kansas State |
| 6 | vs. Oklahoma |
| 7 | vs. West Virginia |
| 8 | @ Texas Tech |
| 9 | vs. Baylor |
| 10 | @ Kansas |
| 11 | vs. TCU |
| 12 | vs. Iowa State |
| 13 | @ Oklahoma State |
Texas faces a full slate in the Big 12. That, along with a heavyweight clash out of conference against LSU, gives the Longhorns the nation's 11th-toughest schedule.
The rematch against the reigning national champs in Week 2 will be the tone-setter for the rest of the season. If the Longhorns scrape by, you might want to start buying playoff futures.
Best bet
The Longhorns just can't get their timing down. In Herman's first season in 2017, he had a quarterback controversy en route to a 7-6 finish; in 2018, three of Texas' four losses came by a combined nine points; and last year, an inexperienced yet promising roster dealt with a slew of injuries.
Top to bottom, the Longhorns aren't stacked in 2020. However, they have enough pieces to do some real damage during the regular season, including an experienced, dual-threat quarterback and a defense rife with athleticism.
Is Texas back? Who knows. Ten wins and a New Year's Six bowl probably doesn't get it done for the fan base, but it'll certainly suffice for over bettors.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.