Georgia win total preview: Bulldogs still dangerous despite key losses on offense
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Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has given bettors no other option but to respect the Bulldogs.
In a deep SEC, Georgia has averaged 12 wins per season and made three straight trips to the conference title game during the last three years.
The Bulldogs are looking up at a few other teams in the title odds, but they're expected to flirt with double-digit victories yet again. Let's dive into their win total of 10 for the upcoming season, courtesy of theScore Bet.
Georgia - Over/Under 10 wins
Over: -125
Under: +105
A look back
Georgia stormed out of the gates in 2019, posting a plus-160 scoring margin through the first five games. However, the Bulldogs then lost to South Carolina in double overtime to put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.
They suffered another loss in the SEC title game against LSU but rebounded in the Sugar Bowl versus Baylor.
Georgia finished the season 12-2. Second-order wins painted a slightly less ideal outlook, projecting only 11.5 victories. That's still a solid season for Smart and Co., and one that was far from fluky.
Returning production
It won't be easy to score on Georgia this season.
The Bulldogs are No. 59 in the country in returning production, bringing back 80% of last year's defense that led the nation in points allowed per game (12.2).
However, the offense is lagging a bit behind.
Georgia returns half of last season's unit plus quarterback Jamie Newman, a transfer from Wake Forest. He has plenty of upside, often showcasing his dual-threat abilities with the Demon Deacons.
Newman registered 2,868 yards through the air and 574 more on the ground last year. He's currently in the mix for the Heisman, but Georgia's system is straightforward and relies on a team effort; Newman tends to do a little too much all by himself.
Without much experience in the supporting cast to prop up a quarterback who's learning a new system, Georgia's offense has a much lower floor than normal.
Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | @ Virginia |
| 2 | vs. ETSU |
| 3 | @ Alabama |
| 4 | vs. UL-Monroe |
| 5 | vs. Vanderbilt |
| 6 | vs. Auburn |
| 7 | @ Missouri |
| 8 | Bye |
| 9 | @ Florida |
| 10 | @ South Carolina |
| 11 | vs. Tennessee |
| 12 | @ Kentucky |
| 13 | vs. Georgia Tech |
Georgia has the seventh-toughest path among SEC programs and is No. 31 nationally in terms of strength of schedule. The Bulldogs should roll both Virginia and East Tennessee State before heading to Alabama. A home game against Auburn in Week 6 and a road tilt at Florida in Week 9 should be close to coin flips, while trips to South Carolina and Kentucky are always dangerous.
Pick
Newman's a fun player. He has a lower floor and higher ceiling than last year's quarterback, Jake Fromm, which is an interesting fit alongside a stingy defense. The signal-caller won't have to be great, but he might also be tougher to trust, especially on the big stage against some of the best teams in the country.
The win total of 10 is fair. Georgia likely suffers a loss at Alabama and again at Florida or against Auburn. But I can't see the Bulldogs dropping three games.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.